DAILY REVIEW 11 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (90pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<10days. The candle close and volume suggests reduced selling pressure but with more downside expected. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2417, 1.2390, 1.2379 Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2532, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: The FED's ending of the QE3 program set the USD on an upward tear but apparent low wages data in the NFP have dampened the move. Since the tipping point last week as prices fell right through the "bottom" and went to 1.2357 SM did not really have a chance to take profit and they did yesterday as weak shorts were faded to 1.2508 before stalling. Prices have pushed below the 1.2400 key level today and look "heavy", exactly what SM would have us think. With retail order "priority" stops located above, SM is likely to reverse from the 1.2400 levels and fade weak shorts to around the 1.2532 pivot or higher before reversing to resume the downward move. 

EU long levels: 1.2390, 1.2379 

EU short levels: 1.2532, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745



GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a below average spread (76pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggests reduced selling pressure but more downside can be expected. Demand: Short term- 1.5850, 1.5815, 1.5800 Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5965, 1.6027, 1.6180, 1.6225 Background: Last week, price closed decisively below the 1.5853 pivot and will likely head lower, the overall bias remains short. Initial Profit taking has taken place after the NFP. Yesterday I wrote "SM is likely to fade weak long to around the 1.5850 or even lower to 1.5815 - 1.5800 level before reversing back up to rebuild short positions..." is still very much in progress. SM will continue the downward pressure at around 1.5815 - 1.5800 key level before reversing to fade weak shorts at 1.5965 or higher to 1.6027 before reversing to resume the downtrend. 

GU long levels: 1.5815, 1.5800 
GU short levels: 1.5965, 1.6027, 1.6180, 1.6225

Posted at 5.00 am EST