DAILY REVIEW 18 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a large spread (132pips) bull closing at the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volumes suggests more downside. This is already fulfilled technically as price pushed to a low of 1.2442 in Asia before pushing back north. Levels of interest: Demand: short-term 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457 Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2632, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: The fundamentals are unchanged Euro remains weak. SM wiped the board last Friday 1.2397 all the way to 1.2545 before reversing. Prices have already pushed lower to 1.2442 in Asia and look to be reversing. Yesterday, I wrote "SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to around the 1.2472 level or lower before reversing to test the day high at 1.2577" and this is now in progress. The SM cycle today is Bias long but the trend is down. 

EU long levels: 1.2477, 1.2465, 1.2457, 1.2442 

EU short levels: 1.2550, 1.2570, 1.2590, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (115pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: Short term- 1.5816, 1.5850 Background: The fundamentals are unchanged prices are still in an "inside day" of yesterday. There is really no demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. The interest in this pair would only come at these demand levels or a retrace to the breakout level 1.5800 or higher. After the UK data release, I repeat yesterday's analysis that SM is likely to keep selling pressure to test the current 1.5591 low or the 1.5561 pivot before reversing back to fade weak shorts. A close below the 1.5561 pivot will mean more downside toward the 1.5426 level. 

GU long levels: 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 5.45 am EST