DAILY REVIEW 25 November 2014


EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (83pips) bll closing near the high on low vol<20days. The candle close and volme suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2266, 1.2240, 1.2157, 1.2182, 1.2133, 1.2105, 1.2053, 1.2037 Supply: short-term: 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745 (confluence with Monthly ema200 1.2735) Background: Euro's fundamentals remain weak. ECB Draghi's extremely dovish speech on Friday sent the Euro into a tailspin and SM spent yesterday fading weak shorts to restock short positions. Yesterday I wrote "SM will likely fade the weak shorts to around the breakout levels and then reverse downwards..." SM went as high as 1.2444 (our short term supply level identified was 1.2442) before stalling and reversing. So surely some of the sell order stacks at 1.2400 - 1.2500 have been absorbed. A large bunch of orders, possibly stops and fresh orders can be clearly seen at 1.2450 - 1.2475, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700  SM is likely to induce more weak shorts to the 1.2400 or lower before reversing to continue the restocking of short orders for the eventual push downwards.

EU long levels: 1.2400, 1.2380 

EU short levels: 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2640, 1.2685, 1.2745


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a normal spread (85pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: Short term- 1.5816, 1.5850 Background: The fundamentals are unchanged, there is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. SM faded weak shorts to the 1.5713 level before stalling and reversing. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test those the 1.5650 level or lower before reversing upwards to retest the 1.5734 pivot or higher.

GU long levels: 1.5650, 1.5630-15, 1.5591, 1.5561 

GU short levels: 1.5734, 1.5816, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905

Posted at 1.43 am EST