DAILY REVIEW 22 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (246pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of selling. 

DAY- The candle is a large spread (148pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC meeting last week was dovish but still contained enough uncertainty of a rate hike possibility in October 2015 with Live FOMC meetings. 

The Oanda order book shows thin volumes with roughly equal trapped short and long positions. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1185-1.1177, 1.1014-1.1000 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1300-1.1310 
Long (stop) orders: 1.1080-1.1041, 1.1007-1.0980 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1165-1.1202, 1.1215-1.1225, 1.1233-1.1252, 1.1305-1.1310, 1.1331-1.1340

 SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test 1.1130 or lower before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1125, 1.0976, 1.0957

EU short levels: 1.1205, 1.1250, 1.1282, 1.1355,  1.1394, 1.1450, 1.1530-1.1546, 1.1570, 1.1620-1.1627 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (328pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (87pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on low vol<3days. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure. 

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows very thinly spread volume with fresh longs from around 1.5550 level. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5461-1.5446, 1.5356-1.5341
Potential supply stacks: 1.5692-1.5720

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5482-1.5470, 1.5421-1.5410, 1.5320-1.5300 (low volumes)

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5501-1.5536, 1.5547-1.5556, 1.5670-1.5680, 1.5662-1.5677 (low volumes) 

SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test yesterday's low 1.5479 or lower before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5479, 1.5340

GU short levels: 1.5528, 1.5555, 1.5580, 1.5680, 1.5742, 1.5780

Posted at 03.07 am EST