DAILY REVIEW 14 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (228pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (95pips) closing near the high on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The upcoming FOMC Meeting this Thursday is what the market has been waiting for. To raise rates or to hold rates?  The weekend Chinese data was poor but the market hopes that "reforms" being implemented will boost the battered Chinese market. 

The Oanda order book shows significantly more trapped short positions but new trapped long positions. Take note that the volumes are fairly thin.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1201-1.1190 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1378-1.1408
Long (stop) orders: 1.1323-1.1311, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1083-1.1070, 1.1004-1.0989 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1351-1.1378

Further key US data today later will give us some indication of how SM will position against the intended direction. Prices made a new high today but are now retracing. SM is likely to fade weak longs to 1.1316 or lower before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1315-1.1300, 1.1278, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1205-1.1190, 1.1125, 1.0976, 1.0957

EU short levels: 1.1320, 1.1366


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (304pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<66weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY - The candle is a below average spread (61pips) bear spinning top closing on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows thin volume with more long volumes from 1.5400 key level. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5381-1.5371, 1.5281-1.5272, 1.5203-1.5193
Potential supply stacks: 1.5496-1.5527, 1.5542-1.5576, 1.5714-5730

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5443-1.5386, 1.5337-1.5327, 1.5311-1.5304, 1.5242-1.5220, 1.5160-1.5152, 1.5093-1.5028, 1.4900 

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5468-1.5488, 1.5581-1.5617 

With UK data only due out tomorrow, SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to 1.5490 or higher before reversing, after which we are likely to see another re-accumulation at the retest of the H4 1.5337 pivot level or lower. 

GU long levels:  1.5327, 1.5285, 1.5165, 1.5112-1.5100, 1.5086

GU short levels: 1.5490, 1.5505, 1.5520, 1.5533, 1.5581, 1.5600-1.5620

Posted at 5.50 am EST