DAILY REVIEW 1 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (557pips) bear upthrust closing on ultrahigh vol>21weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (93pips) bull inverted hammer closing on low vol<8days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: September is here and the FED rate hike is back on the table.   

The Oanda order book reveals very thin volumes in the aftermath and no clear bias in trapped positions. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1205-1.1178, 1.1105-1.1087 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1388-1.1396, 1.1492-1.1503, 1.1539-1.1561, 1.1600 (low volumes)
Long (stop) orders: 1.1278-1.1247, 1.1175-1.1156, 1.1147-1.1116, 1.1075-1.1062, 1.1005-1.0985 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1302-1.1324 (low volumes)

Prices have continued pushing higher in Asia and cleared the 1.1300 key level and retracing. SM is likely remove weak longs to 1.1250 or lower before reversing to continue the upward move.

EU long levels: 1.1250, 1.1228, 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1113, 1.1100

EU short levels: 1.1335, 1.1366, 1.1380, 1.1407, 1.1470, 1.1511, 1.1598-1.1605, 1.1670, 1.1700-1.1715


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is an above averaje spread (483pips) bear closing off the low on ultrahigh vol>21weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY - The candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<69days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

Volumes are thin and the Oanda order book shows the bulk of net long positions trapped in drawdown. 

Potential demand stacks: no significant stacks 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5492-1.5505, 1.5592-1.5600, 1.5693-1.5710, 1.5790-1.5802

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5381-1.5373, 1.5361-1.5350, 1.5329-1.5290

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5402-1.5415, 1.5432-1.5450, 1.5586-1.5597 

The upcoming UK news could be the catalyst for a strong downward move. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.5405 or higher before reversing down. 

GU long levels:  no significant levels

GU short levels: 1.5400, 1.5457, 1.5480, 1.5505, 1.5515,1.5585-1.5600, 1.5802, 1.5929, 1.6015

Posted at 3.23 am EST