DAILY REVIEW 16 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (228pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (70pips) bear closing near the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The upcoming FOMC Meeting this Thursday is what the market has been waiting for. To raise rates or to hold rates?  The weekend Chinese data was poor but the market hopes that "reforms" being implemented will boost the battered Chinese market. 

The Oanda order book shows freshly trapped short positions but a significant of trapped longs. In the lead-up to the FOMC release, we can expect SM to "clear the board" from roughly around 1.1250-1.1400 before the final movement post-release
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1264-1.1250, 1.1201-1.1190 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1385-1.1408 (not really high volume)
Long (stop) orders: 1.1280-1.1270, 1.1253-1.1247, 1.1085-1.1078, 1.1004-1.0989 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1319-1.1329

Prices pushed lower yesterday but now retracing. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.1320 or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1205-1.1190, 1.1125, 1.0976, 1.0957

EU short levels: 1.1320-1.1340, 1.1365 - 1.1372


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (304pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<66weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY - The candle is an above average spread (127pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<80days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows yet more freshly trapped short volume but overall volume is very thinly spread across a wide range and this makes for a wide range to clear as well pre-FOMC. 

Potential demand stacks: no significant demand stacks
Potential supply stacks: 1.5508-1.5557, 1.5714-5730

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5328-1.5305, 1.5287-1.5280, 1.5242-1.5224, 1.5196-1.5188, 1.5111-1.5037 

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5437-1.5443, 1.5450-1.5506, 1.5561-1.5571, 1.5589-1.5624 

With the UK unemployment data due later, SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.5400 key level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5328

GU short levels: 1.5400-1.5413, 1.5435, 1.5457, 1.5490, 1.5505, 1.5520, 1.5533, 1.5581, 1.5600-1.5620

Posted at 1.25 am EST