DAILY REVIEW 17 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (228pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (106pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The upcoming FOMC Meeting this Thursday is what the market has been waiting for. To raise rates or to hold rates?  The weekend Chinese data was poor but the market hopes that "reforms" being implemented will boost the battered Chinese market. 

The Oanda order book shows overall more trapped short positions but also a significant volume of trapped longs. In the lead-up to and following the FOMC release, we can expect SM to "clear the board" from roughly around 1.1200-1.1400.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1201-1.1190, 1.1013-1.1000 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1385-1.1408 (not really high volume)
Long (stop) orders: 1.1306-1.1295, 1.1213-1.1200, 1.1078-1.1067, 1.1000-1.0995 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1319-1.1329

Prices pushed lower pushed lower yesterday before climbing up past the 1.1320 as expected. With US data later followed shortly by the FOMC minutes. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.1350 or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1205-1.1190, 1.1125, 1.0976, 1.0957

EU short levels: 1.1365 - 1.1372, 1.1400


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (304pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<66weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY - The candle is a very large spread (198pips) bull closing slightly off the high on average vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows very thinly spread volume wth fresh longs from around 1.5480 level. 

Potential demand stacks: no significant demand stacks
Potential supply stacks: 1.5508-1.5557, 1.5714-5730

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5328-1.5305, 1.5287-1.5280, 1.5242-1.5224, 1.5196-1.5188, 1.5111-1.5037 

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5524-1.5535, 1.5549-1.5561, 1.5592-1.5622, 1.5664-1.5675, 1.5727-1.5733 (low volumes) 

Prices have surged after the positive UK jobs data and with very little retrace after a near 200 pip move. SM is likely to retest yesterday's high 1.5527 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5328

GU short levels: 1.5527-1.5538, 1.5551-1.5570, 1.5581, 1.5678

Posted at 5.14 am EST