DAILY REVIEW 18 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (228pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a large spread (156pips) bull closing near the high on high vol>11days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC meeting was dovish but still contained enough uncertainty on the rate hike possibility in October 2015 with Live FOMC meetings. 

The Oanda order book shows overall more trapped short positions but also a significant volume of trapped longs. In the lead-up to and following the FOMC release, we can expect SM to "clear the board" from roughly around 1.1200-1.1400.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1201-1.1190, 1.1013-1.1000 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1488-1.1508 (not really high volume)
Long (stop) orders: 1.1430-1.1405, 1.1392-1.1380, 1.1330-1.1321 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1437-1.1447, 1.1723-1.1740

As expected, prices are now pushing higher. SM is likely to test the H4 breakout level 1.1530 or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1390, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1205-1.1190, 1.1125, 1.0976, 1.0957

EU short levels: 1.1450, 1.1530-1.1546, 1.1570, 1.1620-1.1627 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (304pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<66weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY - The candle is a large spread bull (141pips) closing off the high on high vol>11days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows very thinly spread volume with fresh longs from around 1.5550 level. 

Potential demand stacks: no significant demand stacks
Potential supply stacks: 1.5690-1.5715

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5618-1.5633, 1.5718-1.5728, 1.5760-1.5771, 1.5837-1.5847 

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5524-1.5535, 1.5549-1.5561, 1.5592-1.5622, 1.5664-1.5675, 1.5727-1.5733 (low volumes) 

Prices continued higher after the market faded weak longs. SM is likely to test the 1.5680 H4 breakout level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5550, 1.5520-1.5500

GU short levels: 1.5680, 1.5742, 1.5780

Posted at 5.23 am EST