DAILY REVIEW 4 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (557pips) bear upthrust closing on ultrahigh vol>21weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a large spread (156pips) bear closing near the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: September is here and the FED rate hike is back on the table. The ECB's press conference yesterday set a really dovish tone which caused the steep drop and this were further accentuated by the ISM Non-manufacturing data released.  

The Oanda order book reveals more trapped short positions. There is a significant net demand level at 1.1250-1.1200
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1105-1.1087 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1350, 1.1388-1.1396, 1.1492-1.1503, 1.1539-1.1561, 1.1600 (low volumes)
Long (stop) orders: 1.1117-1.1110, 1.1093-1.1062, 1.1005-1.0985 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1150-1.1171, 1.1202-1.1217, 1.1240-1.1253, 1.1260-1.1268, 1.1328-1.1346

Prices are in the process of retracing as profit some taking occurs prior to the NFP release later today. SM is likely to continue fading weak shorts to 1.1160 or higher before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1100

EU short levels: 1.1170, 1.1215, 1.1250, 1.1260, 1.1275-1.1280, 1.1335, 1.1366, 1.1380, 1.1407, 1.1470


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is an above averaje spread (483pips) bear closing off the low on ultrahigh vol>21weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY - The candle is a normal spread (94pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests reduced selling pressure.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows the bulk of net long positions trapped in drawdown and new volume trapped short. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5225-1.5213, 1.5170-1.5160 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5492-1.5505, 1.5592-1.5600, 1.5693-1.5710, 1.5790-1.5802

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5268-1.5249, 1.5190-1.5180, 1.5140-1.5125, 1.5092-1.5062 (low volumes)

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5235-1.1594, 1.5320-1.5331, 1.5435-1.5450, 1.5468-1.5478 

Prices plunged further after the ECB press conference. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.5300 or higher before reversing down. 

GU long levels:  1.5213, 1.5200, 1.5165

GU short levels: 1.5300, 1.5320-1.5335, 1.5350-1.5360, 1.5372, 1.5400, 1.5457, 1.5480, 1.5505, 1.5515,1.5585-1.5600, 1.5802, 1.5929, 1.6015

Posted at 4.46 am EST