DAILY REVIEW 21 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (246pips) bear small-body spinning top closing on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of selling. 

DAY- The candle is a very large spread (190pips) bear closing off the low on high vol>12days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The FOMC meeting last week was dovish but still contained enough uncertainty of a rate hike possibility in October 2015 with Live FOMC meetings. 

The Oanda order book shows overall more trapped short positions but also a significant volume of trapped longs. In the lead-up to and following the FOMC release, we can expect SM to "clear the board" from roughly around 1.1200-1.1400.
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1201-1.1190, 1.1013-1.1000 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1450-1.1460 (not high volume)
Long (stop) orders: 1.1300-1.1284, 1.1263-1.1250, 1.1235-1.1227 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1324-1.1331, 1.1723-1.1740

Friday's reversal of all Euro gains against the US Dollar post-FOMC had analysts baffled and sentiment has seemingly shifted again, maybe taking into effect Moody's downgrade of France's credit rating. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to H1 breakout level 1.1355 or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1275-1.1268, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1205-1.1190, 1.1125, 1.0976, 1.0957

EU short levels: 1.1355,  1.1394, 1.1450, 1.1530-1.1546, 1.1570, 1.1620-1.1627 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (328pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 
DAY- The candle is a large spread (144pips) bear closing near the low on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows very thinly spread volume with fresh longs from around 1.5550 level. 

Potential demand stacks: no significant demand stacks
Potential supply stacks: 1.5692-1.5720

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5530-1.5306, 1.5500-1.5483, 1.5421-1.5407 (low volumes)

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5542-1.5560, 1.5662-1.5675 (low volumes) 

Prices caved in to US Dollar strength on Friday post-FOMC. SM is likely to fade weak shorts the 1.5580 level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5520-1.5500

GU short levels: 1.5580, 1.5680, 1.5742, 1.5780

Posted at 00.30 am EST