DAILY REVIEW 11 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (244pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests reduced selling pressure. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (123pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: September is here and the FED rate hike is back on the table. Last week, the ECB's press conference's dovish tone caused a steep drop. The NFP missed expectations slightly but the adjustments and employment rate were good.  

The Oanda order book shows significantly more trapped short positions. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1105-1.1087 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1350, 1.1388-1.1396, 1.1492-1.1503, 1.1539-1.1561, 1.1600 (low volumes)
Long (stop) orders: 1.1290-1.1268, 1.1168-1.1155, 1.1130-1.1120, 1.1086-1.1070, 1.1004-1.0989 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1300-1.1311

Weaker US data yesterday seemed to drive this pair north. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to test 1.1316 or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1200-1.1190, 1.1125, 1.0976, 1.0957

EU short levels: 1.1320, 1.1366


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is a normal spread (271pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<20weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY - The candle is a large spread (137pips) bull large body spinning top closing on low vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows thin volume with net positions trapped in both directions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5308-1.5300, 1.5225-1.5200, 1.5170-1.5160 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5485-1.5505, 1.5592-1.5600, 1.5693-1.5710, 1.5790-1.5802

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5430-1.5405, 1.5340-1.5327, 1.5312-1.5304, 1.5267-1.5258, 1.5237-1.5223, 1.5160-1.5152, 1.5093-1.5028, 1.4900 

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5466-1.5480, 1.5583-1.5614 

Following the release of the MPC minutes and UK data, SM has swept up and down re-accumulating positions with price now retesting the downward breakout level. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to yesterday's high 1.5475 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5433, 1.5405-1.5400, 1.5343-1.5330, 1.5263-1.5243, 1.5165, 1.5112-1.5100, 1.5086

GU short levels: 1.5400, 1.5457, 1.5480, 1.5505, 1.5515

Posted at 2.25 am EST