DAILY REVIEW 2 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (557pips) bear upthrust closing on ultrahigh vol>21weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (124pips) bull closing at the high on high vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: September is here and the FED rate hike is back on the table.   

The Oanda order book reveals more trapped long positions. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1105-1.1087 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1388-1.1396, 1.1492-1.1503, 1.1539-1.1561, 1.1600 (low volumes)
Long (stop) orders: 1.1271-1.1261, 1.1231-1.1219, 1.1197-1.1189, 1.1175-1.1160, 1.1147-1.1116, 1.1075-1.1062, 1.1005-1.0985 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1283-1.1293, 1.1328-1.1351 1.1265-1.1376

Prices failed to retest yesterday's high 1.1331 and reversed. The US ADP data will be out later today and SM will position usually against the intended direction. SM is likely to continue to remove weak longs to 1.1230 or lower before reversing to continue the upward move.

EU long levels: 1.1250, 1.1228, 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1113, 1.1100

EU short levels: 1.1335, 1.1366, 1.1380, 1.1407, 1.1470, 1.1511, 1.1598-1.1605, 1.1670, 1.1700-1.1715


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is an above averaje spread (483pips) bear closing off the low on ultrahigh vol>21weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY - The candle is a normal spread (108pips) bear hammer closing at the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

Volumes are thin and the Oanda order book shows the bulk of net long positions trapped in drawdown but huge new volume trapped short. 

Potential demand stacks: no significant stacks 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5492-1.5505, 1.5592-1.5600, 1.5693-1.5710, 1.5790-1.5802

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5300-1.5275, 1.5265-1.5255

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5347-1.5372, 1.5380-1.5392, 1.5401-1.5415, 1.54325-1.5458, 1.5586-1.5597 

Prices broke below the 1.5300 handle but are now retracing. The upcoming UK construction news could be the catalyst for the downward continuation. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to 1.5350 or higher before reversing down. 

GU long levels:  no significant levels

GU short levels: 1.5350-1.5360, 1.5372, 1.5400, 1.5457, 1.5480, 1.5505, 1.5515,1.5585-1.5600, 1.5802, 1.5929, 1.6015

Posted at 12.26 am EST