DAILY REVIEW 10 September 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (864pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on low vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (244pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests reduced selling pressure. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (85pips) bull "dragon fly doji" closing on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: September is here and the FED rate hike is back on the table. Last week, the ECB's press conference's dovish tone caused a steep drop. The NFP missed expectations slightly but the adjustments and employment rate were good.  

The Oanda order book reveals significantly more trapped short positions. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1105-1.1087 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1350, 1.1388-1.1396, 1.1492-1.1503, 1.1539-1.1561, 1.1600 (low volumes)
Long (stop) orders: 1.1130-1.1120, 1.1086-1.1070, 1.1004-1.0989 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1180-1.1190, 1.1207-1.1214, 1.1220-1.1230, 1.1239-1.1248

Prices broke higher during early Asia with prices now retracing. SM is likely to fade induce weak longs to the 1.1200 or lower before reversing. Prices are already testing as I write.....

EU long levels: 1.1200-1.1190, 1.1125, 1.0976, 1.0957

EU short levels: 1.1275-1.1280, 1.1335, 1.1366, 1.1380, 1.1407, 1.1470


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (483pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggest no selling pressure.

WEEK- The candle is a normal spread (271pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<20weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY - The candle is a small spread (54pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<76days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows thin volume with more net long positions trapped in drawdown and some volume trapped short. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5308-1.5300, 1.5225-1.5200, 1.5170-1.5160 
Potential supply stacks: 1.5485-1.5505, 1.5592-1.5600, 1.5693-1.5710, 1.5790-1.5802

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5351-1.5331, 1.5315-1.5307, 1.5269-1.5261, 1.5237-1.5227, 1.5140-1.5132, 1.5093-1.5028, 1.4900 

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5362-1.5379, 1.5408-1.5426, 1.5451-1.5477, 1.5509-1.5514 

With key UK data and MPC minutes due out today, SM will position prices against the intended direction. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to 1.5316 or lower before reversing. 

GU long levels:  1.5316-1.5305, 1.5285, 1.5259-1.5249, 1.5165, 1.5112-1.5100, 1.5086

GU short levels: 1.5400, 1.5457, 1.5480, 1.5505, 1.5515

Posted at 1.28 am EST