DAILY REVIEW 21 August 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but the absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is a below-average spread (407pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very high vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is an above average (288pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on  low vol>3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a large spread (137pips) bull closing at the high on high vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Greece will start to come back into focus as issues remain unresolved. Kicking the can down the road is simply just that, the can is still there.   

The Oanda order book continues to show the  majority of the retail bunch trapped short with freshly trapped shorts in a bi-modal distribution. There are also a large volume of newly trapped longs. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1211-1.1200, 1.1186-1.1158, 1.1106-1.1091 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1361-1.1372, 1.1400-1.1408, 1.1443-1.1460
Long (stop) orders: 1.1270-1.1263, 1.1113-1.1105 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1306-1.1326, 1.1334-1.1358, 1.1405-1.1415, 1.1459-1.1467

With Greek Prime Minister Tsipras resigning yesterday and yet another new snap elections looming, we can expect a lot of profit taking by SM and re-positioning prior to it. Prices broke higher today. SM is likely clear out the trapped shorts to 1.1365 or higher before reversing.

EU long levels:  1.1210-1.1200, 1.1113, 1.1100

EU short levels: 1.1328, 1.1365, 1.1388-1.1400, 1.1410-1.1415


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (402pips) bear hammer closing on very high vol, the highest seen. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (202pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<15weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY - The candle is a normal spread (95pips) bull pseudo-hammer closing on low vol>5days. The candle close and volume suggests selling but price is above current structure and may well surge higher.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows new trapped volume long and old volume trapped short. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5585-1.5575, 1.5557-1.5550, 1.5503-1.5489, 1.5475-1.5462, 1.5444-1.5418  
Potential supply stacks: 1.5693-1.5710, 1.5790-1.5802

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5670-1.5663, 1.5639-1.5629, 1.5615-1.5602, 1.5648-1.5555, 1.5525-1.5515, 1.5420-1.5379, 1.5367-1.5359,1.5332-1.5311, 1.5298-1.5285

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5698-1.5705, 1.5715-1.5733, 1.5788-1.5797, 1.5814-1.5828, 1.5848-1.5860 

With the thin volumes and traders at both ends trapped, we can expect whipsaw as SM takes out traders in the middle before re-positioning for the weekend. SM is likely to take weak short stops to 1.5733 (also fib 61.8% confluence) or higher before reversing.

GU long levels: 1.5651, 1.5636-1.5625, 1.5610-1.5600, 1.5520, 1.5502-1.5495, 1.5403-1.5395, 1.5331, 1.5300

GU short levels: 1.5715, 1.5725, 1.5734-1.5744, 1.5785-1.5813

Posted at 2.13 am EST