DAILY REVIEW 18 August 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but he absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is a below-average spread (407pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very high vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is an above average (288pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on  low vol>3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (66pips) bear closing 1/3 off the low on low vol<30days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Greece will start to come back into focus as issues remain unresolved. Kicking the can down the road is simply just that, the can is still there.  

The Oanda order book continues to show the  majority of the retail bunch trapped short with only small demand seen below 1.1130. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1026-1.0995, 1.0940-1.0925, 1.0900-1.0891, 1.0850-1.0841, 1.0800-1.0790 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1091-1.1115, 1.1191-1.1210
Long (stop) orders: 1.1046-1.1035 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1070-1.1080, 1.1115-1.1125, 1.1286-1.1311, 1.1390-1.1400

Last week, I wrote "Ahead of the weekend, we are likely to see SM re-accumulate for the long push up. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to retest the 1.1100 key level or lower before reversing." Prices have made a lower low to 1.1050 today. SM is likely to retest Asia high 1.1080 before reversing.

EU long levels:  1.1038, 1.1017 

EU short levels: 1.1100-1.1108, 1.1212, 1.1234


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (402pips) bear hammer closing on very high vol, the highest seen. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (202pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<15weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY - The candle is a normal spread (109pips) bear closing nea the low on low vol<59days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows trapped volume in both directions. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5585-1.5575, 1.5557-1.5550, 1.5503-1.5489, 1.5475-1.5462, 1.5444-1.5418  
Potential supply stacks: 1.5643-1.5657, 1.5677-1.5688, 1.5790-1.5805

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5525-1.5515, 1.5420-1.5379, 1.5367-1.5359,1.5332-1.5311, 1.5298-1.5285

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5581-1.5600, 1.5648-1.5655, 1.5688-1.5730, 1.5785-1.5818 

With traders trapped both ways, and the UK CPI, PPI data release today, Prices have continued to push lower as SM has the fuel to take stops against the probable intended direction. SM is likely to continue selling pressure to retest 1.5555 level or lower before reversing. 

GU long levels: 1.5520, 1.5502-1.5495, 1.5403-1.5395, 1.5331, 1.5300

GU short levels: 1.5658, 1.5688, 1.5700-1.5710, 1.5785-1.5813

Posted at 3.40 am EST