DAILY REVIEW 11 August 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but he absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is a below-average spread (407pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very high vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (236pips) near "doji" closing on low vol<16weeks.  The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (116pips) bull closing slightly off the high on low vol<25days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The main mover will still be US-based speeches and data releases between Tue-Thu capping off Friday with Eurozone data. 

The Oanda order book shows the  majority of the retail bunch trapped short. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0952-1.0935, 1.0907-1.0895, 1.0854-1.0845, 1.10815-1.10800 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1094-1.1105, 1.1241-1.1250
Long (stop) orders: no significant orders
Short (stop) orders: 1.0987-1.0995, 1.1220-1.1235, 1.2220-1.2234

Prices stalled after FED member Lockhart's speech yesterday reiterating rate hikes in September "on the table" with the "improving" US economy subject to "numbers" supporting it. Prices stalled and are falling now. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to retest 1.0950 level or lower before reversing to take out the new shorts. 

EU long levels:1.0951-1.0937, 1.0931-1.0924, 1.0905-1.0890, 1.0847, 1.0807-1.0790 

EU short levels: 1.1024, 1.1042, 1.1054-1.1064, 1.1095-1.1105, 1.1025, 1.1050, 1.1115-1.1129, 1.1200, 1.1215-1.1230


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (402pips) bear hammer closing on very high vol, the highest seen. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (199pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on very high  vol>historical. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY - The candle is a large spread (147pips) bull large body spinning top closing on low vol<10days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short volume. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5557-1.5550, 1.5503-1.5489, 1.5475-1.5462, 1.5444-1.5418  
Potential supply stacks: 1.5620-1.5654, 1.5665-1.5680, 1.5695-1.5710 (low volumes)

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5580-1.5555, 1.5422-1.5362,1.5332-1.5316, 1.5298-1.5285

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5776-1.5812 

Prices have already made a new high today as expected. SM is likely to retest 1.5650 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels: 1.5570, 1.5554, 1.5502-1.5495, 1.5403-1.5395, 1.5331, 1.5300

GU short levels: 1.5635-1.5650, 1.5700-1.5710, 1.5735-1.5745, 1.5810-1.5827

Posted at 05.47 am EST