DAILY REVIEW 12 August 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but he absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is a below-average spread (407pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very high vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (236pips) near "doji" closing on low vol<16weeks.  The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is a large spread (127pips) bull small body spinning top closing on high vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The main mover will still be US-based speeches and data releases between Tue-Thu capping off Friday with Eurozone data. 

The Oanda order book continues to show the  majority of the retail bunch trapped short. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1011-1.0995, 1.0940-1.0925, 1.0900-1.0891, 1.0850-1.0841, 1.0800-1.0790 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1075-1.1086, 1.1094-1.1105, 1.1241-1.1250
Long (stop) orders: 1.1046-1.1038 (small vol)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1084-1.1094, 1.1220-1.1235, 1.2220-1.2234

In spite of the action by China and the repeated statements by various FED officials of an impending rate hike in September, the Euro continues to climb against the US Dollar as the market continues to take weak shorts out of scene, possibly headed to as high as 1.1135 - 1.1150 level. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to retest yesterday's high at 1.0987 or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1038, 1.1017 

EU short levels: 1.1088-1.1100, 1.1128-1.1138, 1.1165, 1.1195, 1.1215, 1.1234


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (402pips) bear hammer closing on very high vol, the highest seen. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (199pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on very high  vol>historical. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY - The candle is a large spread (147pips) bull large body spinning top closing on low vol<10days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short volume. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5557-1.5550, 1.5503-1.5489, 1.5475-1.5462, 1.5444-1.5418  
Potential supply stacks: 1.5620-1.5654, 1.5665-1.5680, 1.5695-1.5710 (low volumes)

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5528-1.5520, 1.5511-1.5500, 1.5420-1.5379, 1.5367-1.5359,1.5332-1.5311, 1.5298-1.5285

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5611-1.5622, 1.5780-1.5812 

With traders trapped both ways, it is natural for prices to oscillate. With the UK data coming up later today, it will not be uncommon for SM to take one extreme or another and reverse. SM is likely to continue selling pressure to remove weak longs to 1.5520 or lower before reversing. 

GU long levels: 1.5520, 1.5502-1.5495, 1.5403-1.5395, 1.5331, 1.5300

GU short levels: 1.5615-1.5622, 1.5638, 1.5650, 1.5688, 1.5700-1.5710, 1.5785-1.5813

Posted at 01.47 am EST