DAILY REVIEW 13 August 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but he absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is a below-average spread (407pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very high vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (236pips) near "doji" closing on low vol<16weeks.  The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY- The candle is an ultra-large (189pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on very high vol>21days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The main mover will still be US-based speeches and data releases between Tue-Thu capping off Friday with Eurozone data. 

The Oanda order book continues to show the  majority of the retail bunch trapped short with only small demand seen below 1.1130. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1011-1.0995, 1.0940-1.0925, 1.0900-1.0891, 1.0850-1.0841, 1.0800-1.0790 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1075-1.1086, 1.1094-1.1105, 1.1241-1.1250
Long (stop) orders: none significant
Short (stop) orders: 1.1215-1.1240, 1.1299-1.1329, 1.1370-1.1385, 1.1400-1.1411, 1.1451-1.1505

The Euro continues to climb (nearly 200 pips yesterday) against the US Dollar reaching 1.1212 before retracing. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to retest the 1.1100 key level or lower before reversing. 

EU long levels: 1.1100, 1.1038, 1.1017 

EU short levels: 1.1212, 1.1234


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (402pips) bear hammer closing on very high vol, the highest seen. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (199pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on very high  vol>historical. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY - The candle is a large spread (125pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on high vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short volume. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5557-1.5550, 1.5503-1.5489, 1.5475-1.5462, 1.5444-1.5418  
Potential supply stacks: 1.5620-1.5654, 1.5665-1.5680, 1.5695-1.5710 (low volumes)

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5600-1.5585, 1.5530-1.5520, 1.5511-1.5500, 1.5420-1.5379, 1.5367-1.5359,1.5332-1.5311, 1.5298-1.5285

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5655-1.5668, 1.5703-1.5718, 1.5780-1.5818 

With traders trapped both ways, the oscillation continues. SM is likely to continue selling pressure to remove weak longs to 1.5600 or lower before reversing. 

GU long levels: 1.5600, 1.5520, 1.5502-1.5495, 1.5403-1.5395, 1.5331, 1.5300

GU short levels: 1.5658, 1.5688, 1.5700-1.5710, 1.5785-1.5813

Posted at 12.25 am EST