DAILY REVIEW 20 August 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but he absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is a below-average spread (407pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very high vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is an above average (288pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on  low vol>3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (116pips) bull closing near the high on average vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Greece will start to come back into focus as issues remain unresolved. Kicking the can down the road is simply just that, the can is still there.  

The Oanda order book continues to show the  majority of the retail bunch trapped short with freshly trapped shorts in a bi-modal distribution. There are also a large volume of newly trapped longs. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1106-1.1091, 1.1026-1.1011, 1.1003-1.0095, 1.0940-1.0925, 1.0900-1.0891, 1.0850-1.0841, 1.0800-1.0790 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1175-1.1190, 1.1200-1.1214
Long (stop) orders: 1.1113-1.1105 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1230-1.1238, 1.1299-1.1323

With the FOMC leak and release yesterday, traders were taken out in both directions. As could be seen the the lead up, there was really no selling pressure so it was not surprising as the market volume activity always gives us good clues. Prices made new highs today but are retracing as SM is likely to fade weak longs to retest Asia low 1.1113 or lower before reversing to continue the upward move.

EU long levels:  1.1113, 1.1100, 1.1038, 1.1017, 1.1000-1.0085

EU short levels: 1.1147, 1.1212, 1.1234


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (402pips) bear hammer closing on very high vol, the highest seen. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (202pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<15weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY - The candle is a small spread (65pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows fresh trapped volume long and old volume trapped short that has thinned significantly. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5585-1.5575, 1.5557-1.5550, 1.5503-1.5489, 1.5475-1.5462, 1.5444-1.5418  
Potential supply stacks: 1.5693-1.5710, 1.5790-1.5802

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5670-1.5663, 1.5639-1.5629, 1.5615-1.5602, 1.5648-1.5555, 1.5525-1.5515, 1.5420-1.5379, 1.5367-1.5359,1.5332-1.5311, 1.5298-1.5285

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5698-1.5705, 1.5715-1.5733, 1.5788-1.5797, 1.5814-1.5828, 1.5848-1.5860 

 SM is likely to fade weak longs by testing Asia low 1.5668 or lower before reversing to retest yesterday's high. We can expect whipsaw as SM takes out traders in the middle before re-positioning for the weekend.

GU long levels: 1.5651, 1.5636-1.5625, 1.5610-1.5600, 1.5520, 1.5502-1.5495, 1.5403-1.5395, 1.5331, 1.5300

GU short levels: 1.5715, 1.5725, 1.5734-1.5744, 1.5785-1.5813

Posted at 2.13 am EST