DAILY REVIEW 10 August 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but he absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is a below-average spread (407pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very high vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (236pips) near "doji" closing on low vol<16weeks.  The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY-The candle is a below average spread (70pips) bull closing off the high on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The main mover will still be US-based speeches and data releases between Tue-Thu capping off Friday with Eurozone data. 

The NFP data released was not particularly impressive although the revision was positive. The market dived and subsequently retraced everything on profit taking leaving the usual suspects trapped short where the Oanda order book shows the  majority of the retail bunch trapped short. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0854-1.0846, 1.10815-1.10800 
Potential fresh supply: 1.0982-1.0995, 1.1091-1.1102, 1.1120-1.1130
Long (stop) orders: no significant orders
Short (stop) orders: 1.0970-1.0981, 1.1000-1.1040, 1.1050-1.1063, 1.2220-1.2234

With no major data expected today, SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to retest 1.1000 or higher before reversing. 

EU long levels:1.0847, 1.0807-1.0790 

EU short levels: 1.1000, 1.1054-1.1064, 1.1095-1.1105, 1.1025, 1.1050, 1.1115-1.1129, 1.1200, 1.1215-1.1230


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (402pips) bear hammer closing on very high vol, the highest seen. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (199pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on very high  vol>historical. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. 

DAY - The candle is a very large spread (169pips) bear "hammer" closing on high vol>4days. The candle close and volmume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short volume. 

Potential demand stacks: no significant demand stacks  
Potential supply stacks: 1.5595-1.5607

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5482-1.5477,, 1.5422-1.5401, 1.532-1.5316, 1.5308-1.5290

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5506-1.5520, 1.5531-1.5538, 1.15551-1.5578, 1.5704-1.5713, 1.5720-1.5735, 1.5805-1.5815 

SM is likely to retest 1.5540 or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels: 1.5403-1.5395, 1.5331, 1.5300

GU short levels: 1.5550, 1.5562-1.5575, 1.5595-1.5600, 1.5700, 1.5735-1.5745, 1.5810-1.5827

Posted at 04.29 am EST