DAILY REVIEW 19 August 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down but he absorption of selling is likely a precursor to a retest of the 1.1640 and the 23.6% Fib (1.1794) just above it.  

MONTH- The candle is a below-average spread (407pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on very high vol<1month. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

WEEK- The candle is an above average (288pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on  low vol>3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (76pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<31days. The candle close and volume suggests no selling pressure. 

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Greece will start to come back into focus as issues remain unresolved. Kicking the can down the road is simply just that, the can is still there.  

The Oanda order book continues to show the  majority of the retail bunch trapped short but the trapped volumes are not very large. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.1026-1.1011, 1.1003-1.0095, 1.0940-1.0925, 1.0900-1.0891, 1.0850-1.0841, 1.0800-1.0790 
Potential fresh supply: 1.1091-1.1115, 1.1191-1.1210
Long (stop) orders: 1.1044-1.1033, 1.1013-1.1006 (low volumes)
Short (stop) orders: 1.1090-1.1097, 1.1286-1.1311, 1.1390-1.1400

Prices have retraced after a low of 1.1015 yesterday. SM is likely to retest Asia low 1.1017 or lower before reversing.

EU long levels:  1.1038, 1.1017, 1.1000-1.0085

EU short levels: 1.1100-1.1108, 1.1212, 1.1234


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. However, structures below and the close above 1.5550 indicate a return to the 1.6000 level and higher is quite possible. 

MONTH-  The candle is a below average spread (402pips) bear hammer closing on very high vol, the highest seen. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (202pips) bull closing at the high on low vol<15weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. 

DAY - The candle is a large spread (154pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped volume short. 

Potential demand stacks: 1.5585-1.5575, 1.5557-1.5550, 1.5503-1.5489, 1.5475-1.5462, 1.5444-1.5418  
Potential supply stacks: 1.5693-1.5710, 1.5790-1.5802

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.5660-1.5628, 1.5622-1.5612, 1.5558-1.5548, 1.5525-1.5515, 1.5420-1.5379, 1.5367-1.5359,1.5332-1.5311, 1.5298-1.5285

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.5707-1.5723, 1.5775-1.5790, 1.5806-1.5832, 1.5843-1.5853 

After the UK CPI, PPI data release yesterday, prices plunged and subsequently retraced upwards. SM is likely to fade weak longs to retest Asia low 1.5651 or lower before reversing. 

GU long levels: 1.5651, 1.5643-1.5637, 1.5610-1.5600, 1.5520, 1.5502-1.5495, 1.5403-1.5395, 1.5331, 1.5300

GU short levels: 1.5700-1.5710, 1.5725, 1.5734-1.5744, 1.5785-1.5813

Posted at 3.16 am EST