DAILY REVIEW 9 May 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a low spread (250pips) bull hammer closing on low vol<19months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (230pips) bear "upthrust" closing at the low on low vol<1week. The candle close suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (90pips) dragonfly doji closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests initial buying.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: With there being no clear deadline for the much expected FED rate hike and less than stellar data, the USD continues to weaken. 

Oanda order book:  Trapped short volumes remain the significant bunch.

Potential demand stacks:  1.1335-1.1320, 1.1280-1.1265, 1.1246-1.1230, 1.1210-1.1195, 1.1151-1.1135

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1440-1.1464
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1410-1.1420, 1.1500-1.1505, 1.1610-1.1628

The NFP data last week was not particularly good and yet the USD strengthened pushing prices lower. The weekly candle based on structure position and volume does look suspiciously like a bear trap, but it will likely take a period of reaccumulation slightly lower before pushing back upwards. SM is likely to induce selling pressure to retest Asia low at 1.1379 or lower to induce more weak shorts before reversing to 1.1420 and above.

EU long levels: 1.1350, 1.1320, 1.1310-1.1300, 1.1275-1.1260, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1228

EU short levels:  1.1420, 1.1440, 1.1485, 1.1500, 1.1580, 1.16001.1615, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (665pips) bull hammer closing on low vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (354pips) bear upthrust closing on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a normal spread (127pips) bear closing near the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and vlume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Newly profitable short volumes continue are in play.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4363-1.4349, 1.4245-1.4238

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4400-1.4433, 1.4441-1.4456, 1.4473-1.4492, 1.4512-1.4523, 1.4540-1.4560, 1.4570-1.4580, 1.4592-1.4612

Price opened slightly gapped down and is now retracing upwards. The volumes are thin and with the profitable short volumes, expect SM to fade the weak shorts to the 1.4459 level or higher reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4335, 1.4310, 1.4300

GU short levels: 1.4460, 1.4495, 1.4512-1.4520, 1.4554, 1.4595, 1.4633, 1.4700-1.4712, 1.4730, 1.4770, 1.4790, 1.4800 

Posted at 4.38 am EST