DAILY REVIEW 5 May 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a low spread (250pips) bull hammer closing on low vol<19months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (244pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (62pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. I am still mindful of a potential bear trap.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: With there being no clear deadline for the much expected FED rate hike and less than stellar data, the USD continues to weaken. 

Oanda order book:  Volumes remain thin but weak trapped longs have appeared from around the 1.1470 level.

Potential demand stacks:  1.1335-1.1320, 1.1280-1.1265, 1.1246-1.1230, 1.1210-1.1195, 1.1151-1.1135

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1480-1.1464
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1454-1.1511, 1.1520-1.1530, 1.1610-1.1628

We'll have the continuing jobless claims later. SM is likely to continue the selling pressure to the 1.1420 level or lower before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.1350, 1.1320, 1.1310-1.1300, 1.1275-1.1260, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1228

EU short levels:  1.1480, 1.15900, 1.1520, 1.1575, 1.1590, 1.16001.1615, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (665pips) bull hammer closing on low vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (267pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>8weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY-The candle is a below average spread (110pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Newly trapped and profitable short volumes are in play.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4461-1.4434

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4503-1.4556, 1.4568-1.4595, 1.4628-1.4640, 1.4770-1.4780, 

SM used the poor UK services PMI data earlier to tank prices and trap weak shorts as they push prices back up.  SM is likely to maintain buying pressure to the 1.4550 level or higher before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4460, 1.4445-1.4432, 1.4405-1.4400, 1.4367, 1.4335, 1.4310, 1.4300

GU short levels: 1.4554, 1.4595, 1.4633, 1.4700-1.4712, 1.4730, 1.4770, 1.4790, 1.4800 

Posted at 5.06 am EST