DAILY REVIEW 13 May 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a low spread (250pips) bull hammer closing on low vol<19months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (230pips) bear "upthrust" closing at the low on low vol<1week. The candle close suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a small spread (58pips) bear closing at the low on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: With there being no clear deadline for the much expected FED rate hike and less than stellar data, the USD continues to weaken. 

Oanda order book:  Trapped long volumes are the significant bunch and in play.

Potential demand stacks:  1.1330-1.1310, 1.1246-1.1230, 1.1210-1.1195, 1.1151-1.1135

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: not applicable

SM pushed prices lower despite poor US employment data, trapping news traders. With key Euro and US data later today, the long volumes are now in drawdown with newly profitable short volumes from about the 1.1400 key level, expect SM to maintain selling pressure to push out as many longs as possible to the 1.1310 level or lower before reversing to fade weak shorts.

EU long levels: 1.1310-1.1300, 1.1275-1.1260, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1228

EU short levels:  1.1370-1.1380, 1.1397-1.1420, 1.1452, 1.1485-1.1491, 1.1500-1.1510, 1.1520-1.1525, 1.1532, 1.1580, 1.16001.1615, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (665pips) bull hammer closing on low vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (354pips) bear upthrust closing on low vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a normal spread (124pips) doji closing on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Trapped short volumes are less significant, of more significance are the trapped long volumes.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops: 1.4385-1.4343, 1.4317-1.4305

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4455-1.4465, 1.4505-1.4511, 1.4553-1.4560, 1.4575-1.4582, 1.4605-1.4620

Yesterday, I wrote, "SM to use the news release to whipsaw to clear the weak longs trapped and then reverse...." SM has pushed to take out stops as low as 1.4378 today and are now retracing. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.4440 level or higer before resuming the downward push.

GU long levels: 1.4375, 1.4361, 1.4335, 1.4310, 1.4300

GU short levels: 1.4440, 1.4450-1.4465, 1.4482-1.4495, 1.4512-1.4521, 1.4535, 1.4554, 1.4570-1.4577, 1.4595, 1.4633, 1.4700-1.4712, 1.4730, 1.4770, 1.4790, 1.4800 

Posted at 3.54 am EST