DAILY REVIEW 6 May 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is a low spread (250pips) bull hammer closing on low vol<19months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.  

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (244pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>2weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (107pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<2days. The candle close suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: With there being no clear deadline for the much expected FED rate hike and less than stellar data, the USD continues to weaken. 

Oanda order book:  Trapped short volumes are the more significant bunch.

Potential demand stacks:  1.1335-1.1320, 1.1280-1.1265, 1.1246-1.1230, 1.1210-1.1195, 1.1151-1.1135

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.1440-1.1464
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1410-1.1420, 1.1500-1.1505, 1.1610-1.1628

Today is the US NFP data release. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.1420 level or higher before reversing.

EU long levels: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.1350, 1.1320, 1.1310-1.1300, 1.1275-1.1260, 1.1250-1.1240, 1.1228

EU short levels:  1.1420, 1.1440, 1.1485, 1.1500, 1.1580, 1.16001.1615, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (665pips) bull hammer closing on low vol<2months. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (267pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol>8weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.
DAY- The candle is a below average spread (85pips) bear "near doji" closing on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests reduced selling pressure.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Newly trapped and profitable short volumes continue to be in play.

Potential demand stacks: not significant
Potential supply stacks: not significant

Potential long (trapped) stops:  1.4464-1.4428

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4480-1.4485, 1.4531-1.4556, 1.4568-1.4595, 1.4628-1.4640, 1.4770-1.4780 

There are no major UK news releases today.  The volumes are thin and with the trapped and profitable volumes, expect SM to whipsaw. SM is likely to retest Asia high 1.4493 level or higher before reversing.

GU long levels:  1.4460, 1.4445-1.4432, 1.4405-1.4400, 1.4367, 1.4335, 1.4310, 1.4300

GU short levels: 1.4554, 1.4595, 1.4633, 1.4700-1.4712, 1.4730, 1.4770, 1.4790, 1.4800 

Posted at 2.05 am EST