DAILY REVIEW 6 April 2015

Hi friends, I trust that everyone had a good weekend with the Good Friday holiday and Resurrection Sunday so this week will be back to full trading.  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. The US NFP data fell short of expectations on Good Friday, causing EU to push higher, price is near the swing high of 1.1051.

Monthly- The candle is a large spread (778pips) bear closing nearly 1/2 above the low on ultrahigh vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking.  However more downside can be expected as price will likely test the low. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (313pips) bull "near hammer" closing off the high on low vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside but with reduced buying pressure.  Technically the trend is still down.

Daily- The candle is a large spread (163pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on very low vol<22days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but upside is expected as it is a clear SM markup.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. 

The Oanda order book shows significantly more trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0955-1.0940, 1.0900-1.0890, 1.0865-1.0845, 1.0800-1.0790, 1.0750-1.0730,  1.0721-1.0710, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0650-1.0640, 1.0605-1.0585, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.012-1.1030, 1.1040-1.1060, 1.1086-1.1100, 1.1190-1.1200
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0960-1.0915, 1.0716-1.0680, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1040-1.1060, 1.1088-1.1100, 1.1190-1.1200

SM is likely to fade weak longs to 1.0950 or lower before before resuming the SM corrective cycle up to test the breakout level of 1.1096 or higher. 

EU long levels: 1.0950, 1.0930-1.0915, 1.0900-1.0880, 1.0750, 1.0700, 1.0685, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.1050, 1.1193-1.1200, 1.1257, 1.1270


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up. The candle is still well within the FOMC 18 March 2015 range.

Month- The candle is a large spread (794pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on high vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking prior to a retest of the lows. 
Week- The candle is a below average spread (205pips) small-bodied bull closing off the high on low vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but more upside can be expected.

Day- The candle is a large spread (134pips) bull closing on low vol<12days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short volume.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4808-1.4795, 1.4752-1.4742, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4947-1.4965, 1.5000-1.5010, 1.5100-1.5110, 1.5200-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4945-1.4965, 1.5000-1.5010, no significant higher volumes
Potential long stops: 1.4745-1.4720, 1.4635-1.4605, no significant lower volumes
After the NFP move last Friday, SM is likely to fade weak longs to 1.4890 or lower before reversing to create buying pressure to test 1.5000 or higher.  

GU long levels: 1.4890, 1.4870, 1.4850, 1.4810, 1.4750, 1.4720, 1.4700, 1.4630

GU short levels:  1.4950, 1.5000, 1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 1.16 am EST