DAILY REVIEW 10 April 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 

MONTH- The candle is a large spread (778pips) bear closing nearly 1/2 above the low on ultrahigh vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking.  However more downside can be expected as price will likely test the low. 

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (313pips) bull "near hammer" closing off the high on low vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside but with reduced buying pressure.  Technically the trend is still down.

DAY- The candle is a large spread (151pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. However, ECB Bond purchases remain strong and at high pace, "Inflows into Europe-focused equity exchange-traded funds reached a record $7.8 billion in March, posting inflows on every trading day of the month, according to data by TrimTabs Investment Research on Tuesday." That was up from the previous record of $4.4B."- quoted from ForexLive. The implication of course is that this creates demand for the Euro. The good US jobs data gave strength the US Dollar and prices just tanked and grinded lower throughout unabated.

The Oanda order book still shows significantly more trapped long volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0605-1.0585, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0898-1.0907, 1.0947-1.0957, 1.0998-1.1010, 1.1034-1.1060, 1.1093-1.1100, 1.1190-1.1200
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0600-1.0550  other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0685-1.0700, 1.1050

The bias is clearly short as SM is headed to test the 18 March 2015 FOMC pivot lows. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to the 1.0600 key level or lower before reversing to fade weak shorts. 

EU long levels: 1.0600, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.0650, 1.0685


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up. Prices remain well within the 18 March FOMC range but are reaching to test the low.

MONTH - The candle is a large spread (794pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on high vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking prior to a retest of the lows. 
WEEK - The candle is a below average spread (205pips) small-bodied bull closing off the high on low vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but more upside can be expected.

DAY - The candle is a ultra-large spread (201pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside..

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped long volume.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4660-1.4628, 1.4600-1.4590, (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4792-1.4826, 1.4890-1.4905, 1.4937-1.4975, 1.5000-1.5010, 1.5100-1.5110, 1.5200-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4975-1.4985, 1.4995-1.5010, 1.5020-1.5055, no significant higher volumes
Potential long stops: 1.4660-1.4615, 1.4605-1.4585, no significant lower volumes

Prices continued to tank as retail traders piled in on speculative longs based on price, giving net long positions for the herd. Prices continued to tank as the US Dollar strengthened across the board. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the 18 march 2015 FOMC low 1.4849 or lower before reversing to 1.4633 or lower. A close below 1.4633 will expose the 1.4227 monthly pivot.  
Actually prices have pushed lower past the 1.4633 as I write....

GU long levels: 1.4630, 1.4475, 1.4227

GU short levels:  1.4675, 1.4700, 1.4725, 1.4750, 1.4785

Posted at 3.05 am EST