DAILY REVIEW 15 April 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down.  

MONTH- The candle is a large spread (778pips) bear closing nearly 1/2 above the low on ultrahigh vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking.  However more downside can be expected as price will likely test the low. 

WEEK- The candle is a below-average spread (313pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a very large spread (176pips) bull closing about 1/3 off the high on high vol>12days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. ECB Bond purchases remain strong and at high pace, the implication of course is that this creates demand for the Euro. 

The Oanda order book still shows net trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0618-1.0595, 1.0555-1.0524, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0650, 1.0700, 1.0800, 1.0898-1.0907, 1.0947-1.0957, 1.0998-1.1010, 1.1034-1.1060, 1.1093-1.1100, 1.1190-1.1200
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0615-1.0590, 1.0535-1.0495,  other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0710-1.0715, 1.0800, no significant volumes

The combination of the IMF downgrading the US GDP projection, the Japanese economic policy adviser Koichi Hamada said the yen was "considerably weak", with 105 against the dollar being a more reasonable level and the poor US data release yesterday saw prices push straight up taking stops just above the key 1.0700 level and reversing back through the day as weak longs (news traders) are faded. SM is likely to retest the 1.0600 key level or lower before reversing to continue the corrective upward movement. The ECB rate decision later will likely see a SM sweep clearing out the herd before moving upwards.

EU long levels: 1.0600-1.0590, 1.0570-1.0550, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.0706, 


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up. 

MONTH - The candle is a large spread (794pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on high vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking prior to a retest of the lows. 
WEEK - The candle is a below average spread (205pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a ultra-large spread (198pips) bull closing near the high on high vol>9days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows net trapped short volume.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4500, (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4695-1.4730, 1.4792-1.4826, 1.4850-1.4862, 1.4890-1.4905, 1.4937-1.4975, 1.5000-1.5010, 1.5100-1.5110, 1.5200-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4800-1.4830, 1.4847-1.4865, 1.4955-1.4985, 1.4995-1.5010, no significant higher volumes
Potential long stops: 1.4565-1.4515, 1.4510-1.4495, no significant lower volumes

Prices shot up as well following the US Dollar weakness as described above for the EU pushing to 1.4800 and then falling off. SM is likely to retest Asia high 1.4691 or higher before before reversing to continue the downtrend.  

GU long levels: 1.4725-1.4715, 1.4700-1.4690, 1.4475, 1.4227

GU short levels:  1.4880, 1.4900, 1.4920, 1.4957, 1.4972, 1.5000

Posted at 2.32 am EST