DAILY REVIEW 14 April 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. 

MONTH- The candle is a large spread (778pips) bear closing nearly 1/2 above the low on ultrahigh vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking.  However more downside can be expected as price will likely test the low. 

WEEK- The candle is a below-average spread (313pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (99pips) bear narrow body spinning top closing on average vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. ECB Bond purchases remain strong and at high pace, the implication of course is that this creates demand for the Euro. Last week's IMF report that showed central bankers sold off Euro in anticipation of losses tied to the increased stimulus/QE had the US Dollar bulls back in the market. With a slew of US data out this week, we can expect a further push downward for the pair.

The Oanda order book still shows net trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0545-1.0530, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0650, 1.0700, 1.0800, 1.0898-1.0907, 1.0947-1.0957, 1.0998-1.1010, 1.1034-1.1060, 1.1093-1.1100, 1.1190-1.1200
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0540-1.0530, 1.0517-1.0495,  other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0630-1.0655, 1.0685-1.0700, 1.1050

SM went to 1.0608 yesterday before reversing back down. SM is likely to retest the 1.0600 key level or higher before reversing to continue the downtrend. 

EU long levels: 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.0610, 1.0650, 1.0685


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the last month's low 1.4633 and looks headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up. 

MONTH - The candle is a large spread (794pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on high vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking prior to a retest of the lows. 
WEEK - The candle is a below average spread (205pips) bear closing near the low on low vol<4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

DAY - The candle is a normal spread (115pips) bull closing at the high on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Note after the push past 1.4633 it is likely profit taking and restocking of short positions.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows net trapped short volume.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4500, (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4695-1.4730, 1.4792-1.4826, 1.4850-1.4862, 1.4890-1.4905, 1.4937-1.4975, 1.5000-1.5010, 1.5100-1.5110, 1.5200-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4700-1.4730, 1.4847-1.4865, 1.4975-1.4985, 1.4995-1.5010, 1.5020-1.5055, no significant higher volumes
Potential long stops: 1.4565-1.4515, 1.4510-1.4495, no significant lower volumes

Prices made a new high to 1.4691 in Asia morning before reversing. SM is likely to retest Asia high 1.4691 or higher before before reversing to continue the downtrend.  

GU long levels: 1.4475, 1.4227

GU short levels:  1.4648, 1.4675, 1.4700, 1.4725, 1.4750, 1.4785

Posted at 1.56 am EST