DAILY REVIEW 26 Mar 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (98pips) bear hammer closing on high vol>16days. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Levels of interest: Demand: short term-  1.3750, 1.3710 - 1.3692 (Daily dbr and confluence Fib 50%), 1.3654 - 1.3642 (confluence Fib 61.8%) Supply: 1.3966 The Asian range is 1.3810 – 1.3827 currently. Yesterday I wrote “giving SM the fuel they need to dive down again to take profit and reverse long”. The speeches of Draghi, Weidmann, Yellen and FED members did exactly that giving SM the fuel to play wipeout over the day low to high. Based on the re-accumulation range and period so far, it is unlikely that SM is already done and ready to head north just yet. SM is likely to induce breakout traders short up to the 1.3800 – 1.3790 level and then fade these weak shorts by reversing up to Asia high or around the 1.3847 to induce longs before reversing back downwards to retest the 1.3800 key level or even lower to 1.3750. A stall and re-build at either of these levels will likely see a resumption of the northward trek. A break below 1.3750 will likely see the 1.3700 level tested and the possible resumption of the northbound journey. 
EU long levels:  1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3650 EU short levels: 1.3850, 1.400, 1.4050

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (68pips) bull wide-bodied spinning top on average vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests selling. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term- 1.6467, 1.6432 - 1.6420, 1.6358 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6304 (confluence Fib 88.6%), 1.6268 - 1.6251 The Asian range is 1.6526 – 1.6539 currently. Prices followed pretty much the same dance as the EU with the strengthening and weakening of the USD during the various speeches. SM does appear as though they have completed the re-accumulation phase for the GU. SM is likely to induce longs at Asia high or up to around 1.6560 before reversing back to 1.6495 or lower before turning to head back upwards. 
GU long levels:  1.6495, 1.6467, 1.6425, 1.6358  GU short levels:  1.6560, 1.6575, 1.6625, 1.6775, 1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 11.51 pm EST