DAILY REVIEW 19 Mar 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (62pips) bull “hammer closing on low vol>1day. The bear trap looks about to be sprung. Levels of interest: Demand: short term-  1.3903 – 1.3895, 1.3883 – 1.3868 (confluence H1 ema200), 1.3850 – 1.3832, 1.3810 – 1.3790 The Asian range is 1.3914 – 1.3933 currently. Background: The Crimea crisis continues. Yesterday, I wrote “This will give SM time to accumulate their positions in small TRs until a possible resolution or until the market starts to discount the crisis.” So we saw SM whipping up and down yesterday on fear followed by “Mr. Putin’s speech was not as “hard” as expected”. With supply to the upside already cleared and the FOMC later, any prior movement is likely to be a positioning to pounce up or down. At above 1.3900, SM is likely to induce breakout traders to yesterday’s 1.3950 before fading them back to around the 1.3900 level or lower before reversing back up. Alternatively, a move below 1.3900 will likely see a test of the 1.3880 level or lower. A break and close below the 1.3800 handle will likely be on more risk aversion and see price likely test and reverse at the 1.3750 level instead.
EU long levels: 1.3900, 1.3880, 1.3845, 1.3800, 1.3750 EU short levels: 1.3865, 1.400, 1.4050

GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (102pips) bear closing ½ off the low on low vol>1day with bullish volume divergence. The bear trap looks like it is set to go. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term-  1.6625 1.6610 – 1.6600 The Asian range is 1.6585 – 1.6603 currently. SM is likely to induce breakout longs at Asia high or at around 1.6625 before reversing to fade them and re-accumulate at around the 1.6608 level or even to around 1.6530 – 1.6515 before reversing back north to test daily supply. 
GU long levels:  1.6520, 1.6500 GU short levels:  1.6625, 1.6775, 1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 4.02 am EST