DAILY REVIEW 20 Mar 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a large spread (124pips) bear closing on average vol>2days. The candle and volume suggests more downside which has been realized following the FOMC news. Levels of interest: Demand: short term-  1.3772 (confluence Fib 38.2% and H4 ema200), 1.3750, 1.3710 - 1.3692 (Daily dbr and confluence Fib 50%), 1.3654 - 1.3642 (confluence Fib 61.8%) Supply: 1.3966 The Asian range is 1.3816 – 1.3844. Background: The Crimea crisis continues. FOMC mentioned increase of interest rate in 2015 and market has started pricing in the expectation resulting in USD strength across the board. SM is likely to continue the downward movement and reverse to remove weak shorts at one of the demand levels indicated and move into a re-accumulation subject to the Crimea crisis being resolved.
EU long levels: 1.3772, 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3650 EU short levels: 1.3865, 1.400, 1.4050

GU: The Daily candle is a large spread (146pips) bear closing off the low on high vol>8days. The candle close and volume suggests commencement of buying. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term-  1.6507 - 1.6500, 1.6473 (confluence Fib 61.8%), 1.6432 - 1.6420, 1.6358 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6304 (confluence Fib 88.6%), 1.6268 - 1.6251 The Asian range is 1.6527 – 1.6554. SM is likely to induce shorts to around the 1.6500 key level before reversing to fade them and remove the weak shorts to around the 1.6575 level or higher before reversing down. 
GU long levels:  1.6500, 1.6473, 1.6425, 1.6358  GU short levels:  1.6575, 1.6625, 1.6775, 1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 6.54 am EST