DAILY REVIEW 24 Mar 2014
EU: Monthly- the candle is a below-average spread (348pips) bull closing off the high on low vol<33months. The candle close suggests more upside and the volume suggests SM markup. Weekly- the candle is a normal spread (198pips) bear closing off the low on low vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests SM may be reloading long positions. The Daily candle is a small spread (45pips) bull spinning top closing on low vol<3days. The candle and volume suggests no selling pressure. Levels of interest: Demand: short term-  1.3750, 1.3710 - 1.3692 (Daily dbr and confluence Fib 50%), 1.3654 - 1.3642 (confluence Fib 61.8%) Supply: 1.3966 The Asian range is 1.3785 – 1.3807 currently. Background: SM is likely to induce longs at Friday’s US session high, fade them to Asia low and then push further up to around the 1.3855 level to fade weak shorts before reversing downward to the 1.3750 level to perhaps complete the re-accumulation campaign and then move back north. Having said that, any further escalation of political tensions over the Crimea situation may result in more risk aversion giving SM the fuel required to progressively re-accumulate before the journey north.
EU long levels: 1.3750, 1.3700, 1.3650 EU short levels: 1.3820, 1.3865, 1.400, 1.4050

GU: Monthly- the candle is a below-average spread (572pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<13weeks. The candle close suggests more upside but the volume suggests no demand. Weekly- the candle is a below-average spread (190pips) bear closing at the low on  low vol<10weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside markdown. The Daily candle is a small spread (45pips) bear spinning top on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests buying. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term- 1.6473 (confluence Fib 61.8%), 1.6432 - 1.6420, 1.6358 (confluence Fib78.6%), 1.6304 (confluence Fib 88.6%), 1.6268 - 1.6251 The Asian range is 1.6467 – 1.6495 currently. Prices opened with a gap down as SM took out weak longs (Support/Resistance traders) and they have since closed the gap. SM is likely to induce long breakout traders around the 1.6500 key level or higher before reversing to fade them after which they would be likely to test the 1.6467 or lower before reversing back upwards. 
GU long levels:  1.6467, 1.6425, 1.6358  GU short levels:  1.6575, 1.6625, 1.6775, 1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 3.06 am EST