Monday, 6 January 2014

DAILY REVIEW 6 Jan 2014
EU: Weekly – the candle is a near-normal spread (237pips) bear closing at the lows on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggest more downside. The Daily candle is a normal spread (91pips) bear closing at the low on high vol<1days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Current swing high 1.3892, Daily/Weekly 61.8%Fib @ 1.3522, 78.6%Fib @ 1.3422, weekly supply approx 1.4200 – 1.4250. The Asian range is 1.3577 – 1.3601 currently. Note that 1.3523 is the Dec 2013 low and it will take effort to break and close below it. If SM’s intent s to build a range to distribute downwards, a probable range “top” level would be about the 1.3675 level for a short. Current price is now about 320pips from the daily swing high 1.3892 and with price already at about 3 x the daily range, we should likely see some sort of “correction” upwards soon. SM is likely to continue the selling pressure to test the1.3522 level and maybe take stops below it before reversing back upwards.
EU long levels: 1.3520, 1.3600 EU short levels: 1.3630, 1.3650, 1.3675, 1.3818, 1.3892

GU: Weekly – the candle is a below-average spread (208pips) bear upthrust closing on low vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggest more downside price.  The Daily candle is a below-average spread (79pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside as price is not near any significant level. Levels of interest: Daily supply levels 1.6720, 1.6750 Daily demand levels approximately 1.6220 – 1.6215 Daily 88.6%Fib @ 1.6259 78.6%Fib @ 1.6297 The Asian range is 1.6347 – 1.6415 currently. Price opened with a small gap down that was quickly closed as the momentum of the monthly bearish volume divergence was maintained. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure and test the previous TR low of 1.6314 or lower before reversing back upwards to fade weak shorts. 
GU long levels:  1.6315, 1.6300, 1.6260, 1.6220 GU short levels:  1.6441, 1.6500, 1.6525, 1.6617, 1.6720, 1.6750

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