EU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (69pips) bear reverse upthrust doji-like body on low vol<3days. The combination of the candle close and volume suggests more upside. The absorption volume that we saw last week on the H4 would also suggest the bullish continuation.
Unchanged Levels of interest: Current H1 swing high 1.3738 TR 1.3652 – 1.3738 Short-term demand 1.3513, 1.3491, 1.3450 Short-term supply: 1.3755 – 1.3797 (gap) H4 supply 1.3816 Current Daily: 1.3866 – 1.3892 (note that supply has been removed from this range) Daily Supply: 1.4150, 1.4170, 1.4225, 1.4242 Short term demand: 1.3625 – 1.3630, 1.3598 – 1.3610, 1.3575, 1.3535 – 1.3550
The Asian range is 1.3674 – 1.3670. SM has taken taken out the breakout traders long and is reversing and creating selling pressure fading weak longs to test the 1.3620 level or lower prior to FOMC and then reversing after re-accumulation to test Friday’s high and breaking higher. A H1 close below 1.3500 may mean more downside if FOMC drops a tape bomb that is totally unexpected.
EU long levels: 1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3545 EU short levels: 1.3738, 1.3755, 1.3810 – 1.3820, 1.3866, 1.3892
GU: The Daily candle is a normal spread (89pips) bear near-doji spinning top closing on low vol<4days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside no selling pressure. Unchanged Levels of interest:
Short-term supply level 1.6620 – 1.6636 (confluence: Fib 78.6% @ 1.6626), 1.6650 – 1.6667 (Fib88.6% confluence @ 1.6645) TR 1.6473 – 1.6529 Short term demand 1.6440 – 1.6450 Demand: 1.6395 – 1.6410 (confluence H4 ema200 @ 1.6406)
The Asian range is 1.6559 – 1.6593. After trapping weak longs, SM are currently reversing to test the 1.6514 breakout level or lower before FOMC prior to reversing upward.
GU long levels: 1.6514, 1.6500, 1.6474, 1.6415, 1.6395, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6280 GU short levels: 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667
Posted at EST 8.02 am due to technical delays
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