EU: Weekly- the candle is a above-average spread (232pips) bull closing off the high on average vol>1week. The candle close and volume suggest more upside. The Daily candle is a below average spread (76pips) bear upthrust on very high volume vol<1day. The combination of the candle close and volume suggests more upside. The absorption volume that we saw last week on the H4 would also suggest the bullish continuation .
Levels of interest: Current H1 swing high 1.3738 TR 1.3652 – 1.3738 Short-term demand 1.3513, 1.3491, 1.3450 Short-term supply: 1.3755 – 1.3797 (gap) H4 supply 1.3816 Current Daily: 1.3866 – 1.3892 (during stop hunt holiday period so I won’t put too much weight to this unless there is a clear change in sentiment) Daily Supply: 1.4150, 1.4170, 1.4225, 1.4242 Short term demand: 1.3625 – 1.3630, 1.3598 – 1.3610, 1.3575, 1.3535 – 1.3550
The Asian range is 1.3672 – 1.37005 currently. SM has taken the key level shorts at 1.3700 is likely to create selling pressure fading weak longs to test the 1.3620 level or lower before reversing to test Friday’s high and breaking higher. A H1 close below 1.3500 may mean more downside but barring a tape bomb is unlikely.
EU long levels: 1.3620, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3545 EU short levels: 1.3738, 1.3755, 1.3810 – 1.3820, 1.3866, 1.3892
GU: Weekly- the candle is a above-average spread (273pips) bull upthrust closing on average vol>4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. The Daily candle is a large spread (191pips) bear closing AT the low on very high vol>24days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
Levels of interest:
Short-term supply level 1.6600 – 1.6615, 1.6620 – 1.6636 (confluence: Breakout level 1.6620 and Fib 78.6% @ 1.6626), 1.6650 – 1.6667 (Fib88.6% confluence @ 1.6645) 1.6597 – 1.6602 (confluence Fib 81.8% @ 1.6595) Manipulation levels Fib 38.2% confluence 1.6550 M15 ema200 TR 1.6473 – 1.6529 Short term demand 1.6455 – 1.6449 (likely manipulation trap area for weak longs) Demand: 1.6395 – 1.6410 (confluence H4 ema200 @ 1.6406)
The Asian range is 1.6473 – 1.6513. Prices opened with a +26pips gap up as SM removed weak shorts and then went to 1.6473 to trap breakout short traders and currently within the trading range. SM is likely to test the Asia low or lower to the 1.6410 level before reversing up to test the 1.6500 level.
GU long levels: 1.6415, 1.6395, 1.6320, 1.6300, 1.6280 GU short levels: 1.6529, 1.6555, 1.6600, 1.6625, 1.6650, 1.6667
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