DAILY REVIEW 10 Jan 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a near-normal spread (85pips) bull large body spinning top closing off the high on high vol>4days. The candle close and volume suggests possible continued demand. Levels of interest are unchanged: Current swing high 1.3892, Daily/Weekly 61.8%Fib @ 1.3522, 78.6%Fib @ 1.3422, weekly supply approx 1.4200 – 1.4250 H4 ema200 @ 1.3657. TR in focus: 1.3547 – 1.3675 The Asian range is 1.3600 – 1.3619 SM used yesterday’s good EU and German Industrial Production numbers to create buying pressure all the way leading to Draghi’s speech and then faded the market all the way to take stops below the 1.3550 level (at 1.3547) before reversing all the way back upwards to close as almost another “inside day” daily candle. With NFP coming up later and with price not even having a 19pip range the whole day so far, the best strategy will be to trade the extremes as SM is likely to position prices against the intended direction prior to the NFP release. Prices may not really dive unless the numbers are significantly better than expected as the market has generally already priced-in the earlier ADP release.  Having said that, since price is pretty much an “inside day”, several short-term demand levels are possible manipulation levels.
EU long levels: 1.3579, 1.3565, 1.3550, 1.3520 EU short levels: 1.3632, 1.3652, 1.3675, 1.3818, 1.3892

GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (56pips) bull closing off the high on average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests supply starting to come in as price reaches the 1.6500 key level. Levels of interest: Daily supply levels 1.6720, 1.6750 Daily demand levels approximately 1.6220 – 1.6215 Daily 88.6%Fib @ 1.6259 78.6%Fib @ 1.6297 The Asian range is 1.6466 – 1.6481 Price has broken yesterday’s high but with a very small Asia range. SM is likely to create selling pressure to fade weak longs before reversing to test the 1.6500 level and possibly reverse back down for profit taking. A H1 close below 1.6347 will likely see more downside.
GU long levels:  1.6418, 1.6400, 1.6375, 1.6347, 1.6315, 1.6300, 1.6260, 1.6220 GU short levels:  1.6500, 1.6525, 1.6617, 1.6720, 1.6750