DAILY REVIEW 6 April 2015

Hi friends, I trust that everyone had a good weekend with the Good Friday holiday and Resurrection Sunday so this week will be back to full trading.  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. The US NFP data fell short of expectations on Good Friday, causing EU to push higher, price is near the swing high of 1.1051.

Monthly- The candle is a large spread (778pips) bear closing nearly 1/2 above the low on ultrahigh vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking.  However more downside can be expected as price will likely test the low. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (313pips) bull "near hammer" closing off the high on low vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside but with reduced buying pressure.  Technically the trend is still down.

Daily- The candle is a large spread (163pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on very low vol<22days. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but upside is expected as it is a clear SM markup.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. 

The Oanda order book shows significantly more trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0955-1.0940, 1.0900-1.0890, 1.0865-1.0845, 1.0800-1.0790, 1.0750-1.0730,  1.0721-1.0710, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0650-1.0640, 1.0605-1.0585, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.012-1.1030, 1.1040-1.1060, 1.1086-1.1100, 1.1190-1.1200
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0960-1.0915, 1.0716-1.0680, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.1040-1.1060, 1.1088-1.1100, 1.1190-1.1200

SM is likely to fade weak longs to 1.0950 or lower before before resuming the SM corrective cycle up to test the breakout level of 1.1096 or higher. 

EU long levels: 1.0950, 1.0930-1.0915, 1.0900-1.0880, 1.0750, 1.0700, 1.0685, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.1050, 1.1193-1.1200, 1.1257, 1.1270


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up. The candle is still well within the FOMC 18 March 2015 range.

Month- The candle is a large spread (794pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on high vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking prior to a retest of the lows. 
Week- The candle is a below average spread (205pips) small-bodied bull closing off the high on low vol<3weeks. The candle close and volume suggests no buying pressure but more upside can be expected.

Day- The candle is a large spread (134pips) bull closing on low vol<12days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short volume.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4808-1.4795, 1.4752-1.4742, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4947-1.4965, 1.5000-1.5010, 1.5100-1.5110, 1.5200-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4945-1.4965, 1.5000-1.5010, no significant higher volumes
Potential long stops: 1.4745-1.4720, 1.4635-1.4605, no significant lower volumes
After the NFP move last Friday, SM is likely to fade weak longs to 1.4890 or lower before reversing to create buying pressure to test 1.5000 or higher.  

GU long levels: 1.4890, 1.4870, 1.4850, 1.4810, 1.4750, 1.4720, 1.4700, 1.4630

GU short levels:  1.4950, 1.5000, 1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 1.16 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 2 April 2015

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. Bias is still strongly down. Possible retracement short levels will be around the new breakout levels. The candle is still well within the FOMC 18 March 2015 range.

Monthly- The candle is a large spread (778pips) bear closing nearly 1/2 above the low on ultrahigh vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking.  However more downside can be expected as price will likely test the low. 

Week- The candle is a below average spread (284pips) bull closing 1/2 off the high on high vol>181weeks. The candle close and volume suggests possible absorption of selling. Technically the trend is still down.

Daily- The candle is a below average spread (81pips) bull closing 1/2 off the hig on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests buying, upside retrace can be expected but the trend is still down.
Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: Fundamentals for the Euro remain weak as the US FED mulls over the rate increase implementation. 

The Oanda order book shows significantly more trapped short volumes. 
Potential Fresh demand: 1.0721-1.0710, 1.0700-1.0690, 1.0650-1.0640, 1.0605-1.0585, 1.0500-1.0490, 1.0465-1.0430, 1.0400, 1.0000
Potential fresh supply: 1.0810-1.0790, 1.0845-1.0865, 1.0890-1.0900, 1.0940-1.0955, 1.0990-1.1000
Trapped long (stop) orders: 1.0710-1.0685, 1.0650, other levels insignificant vol
Trapped short (stop) orders: 1.0942-1.0967, 1.1039-1.1055, 1.1100

Prices wiped up and down yesterday as SM cleared orders using a combination of the US ADP data and the Michigan data prior to tomorrow's NFP. SM is likely to maintain the buying pressure to 1.0800 or higher before resuming the downtrend. 

EU long levels: 1.0750, 1.0700, 1.0685, 1.0500-1.0496, 1.0490-1.0480, 1.0000

EU short levels: 1.0850, 1.0920, 1.0950, 1.1011


GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed strongly past the monthly 1.4812 pivot and broken the 1.4700 key level, headed toward  the next monthly pivot 1.4225 monthly pivot which is the next possible level of support/demand. With the UK General Elections due this 15 May 2015, we can expect volatility as the market reacts to the possible twists and turns in the run up. The candle is still well within the FOMC 18 March 2015 range.

Month- The candle is a large spread (794pips) bear closing 1/4 off the low on high vol>1month. The candle close and volume suggests profit taking prior to a retest of the lows. 
Week- The candle is a very large spread (198pips) bear closing 1/2 off the low on high vol>7weeks. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of selling.

Day- The candle is a large spread (132pips) bull "near doji" closing on high vol>6days. The candle close and volume suggests buying and more upside can be expected.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.4870 - 1.4812, 1.4229 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book shows more trapped short volume.  

Potential demand stacks: 1.4805-1.4790, 1.4752-1.4742, 1.4700-1.4693 (not really significant volume)
Potential supply stacks: 1.4900-1.4910, 1.4990-1.5000, 1.5092-1.5115, 1.5195-1.5210
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4860-1.4880, 1.4990-1.5010
Potential long stops: 1.4750-1.4720, 1.4635-1.4605, no significant lower volumes
There is UK Construction PMI data at 4.30 am EST today and SM will position prices accordingly prior to the news release. SM is likely to maintain buying pressure test yesterday's high of 1.4870 or higher.  

GU long levels: 1.4800, 1.4750, 1.4720, 1.4700, 1.4630

GU short levels:  1.4870, 1.4900, 1.4921, 1.5000, 1.5026, 1.5100, 1.5136, 1.5150, 1.5200, 1.5225, 1.5280, 1.5305, 1.5320, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5457, 1.5500

Posted at 12.15 am EST