DAILY REVIEW 6 June 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (518pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<9months. The candle close suggests more downside.  

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (276pips) bull closing at the high on high vol>4weeks. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

DAY- The candle is an ultralarge (237pips) bull closing at the high on ultrahigh vol>80days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The US NFP data missed expectations by more than a mile and consequent US Dollar weakness followed. It would seem to have put to bed the FED hawks that have been baying for a rate hike or more. Like the tall grass that grow on the plains, FED's Bainard now says that "there may be benefits on holding off on hiking..." What a difference a day can make.....

Oanda order book:  Trapped short volumes dominate.  

Potential demand stacks:  1.1315-1.1295

Potential supply stacks: not applicable

Potential long (trapped) stops:  not applicable
Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.1362-1.1372, 1.1388-1.1396

After the US NFP shocker which stripped the mojo off Dollar bulls, price opened gapped down by 22pips as SM fades weak longs. SM is likely to fade weak longs to around 1.1300 or lower before reversing.

EU long levels:  1.1170, 1.1100-1.1090, 1.1050, 1.1035, 1.1000

EU short levels:  1.1154, 1.1200, 1.1217, 1.1250, 1.1265, 1.1291, 1.1311, 1.1345, 1.1386, 1.1397-1.1420, 1.1452, 1.1485-1.1491, 1.1500-1.1510, 1.1520-1.1525, 1.1532, 1.1580, 1.16001.1615, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (437pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggests selling.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (338pips) bear spinning top closing on very high vol>70weeks. The candle close and volume suggests absorption of buying.
DAY- The candle is an above average spread (182pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on very high vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests buying.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Overall more new trapped shorts with old trapped longs. 

Potential demand stacks: not applicable
Potential supply stacks: 1.4690-1.4710

Potential long (trapped) stops: 1.4344-1.4324, 1.4293-1.4286

Potential short (trapped) stops: 1.4405-1.4466, 1.4573-1.4590, 1.4760-1.4782

GU made it to the 1.4581 level in the wake of the US NFP release but continuing Brexit concerns meant quick profit taking and prices started descending soon after. Price opened gapped down a further 52 pips and has broken past the 1.4400 level already.  There is no significant UK news today. SM is likely to continue fading the trapped longs to retest current low at 1.4351 or lower before reversing. 

GU long levels: 1.4335-1.4330

GU short levels: 1.4570, 1.4600, 1.4640, 1.4770, 1.4790, 1.4800-1.4820 

Posted at 02.08 am EST