DAILY REVIEW 21 June 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (518pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<9months. The candle close suggests more downside.  

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (171pips) bull spring closing on high vol>6 days. The candle close and volume suggests buying. 

DAY- The candle is a below average spread (80pips) bear upthrust closing on low vol>1day. The candle close and volume suggests a bear trap.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The 5-10 year inflation expectation was adjusted from 2.5% to 2.3%, even more reason to expect that the FED should hold off any further rate hikes for the time being. Overall USD strength/weakness now in the wake of the pro-Brexit poll is likely to be transient until significant US data show clear improvement.

Oanda order book:  The volumes have significantly more trapped longs in play.  

Prices gapped up following the GBP on yesterday's open in the wake of more Brexit news, this time in favour of the "Remain" camp. SM is likely to fade weak longs to close the gap at the 1.1274 level or lower before reversing.

EU long levels:  1.1300, 1.1274, 1.1210, 1.1170, 1.1100-1.1090, 1.1050, 1.1035, 1.1000

EU short levels:  1.1380, 1.1397-1.1420, 1.1452, 1.1485-1.1491, 1.1500-1.1510, 1.1520-1.1525, 1.1532, 1.1580, 1.16001.1615, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (437pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggests selling.

WEEK- The candle is an above average spread (374pips) bull spring closing on ultrahigh vol>past historical buying activity. The candle close and volume suggests buying.
DAY- The candle is an ultralarge spread (285pips) bull closing off the high on high vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: The volumes are thin and no significant trapped positions. 

The Brexit dance continues this week as prices gapped up a whopping 105pips and never looked back. Prices continue to make new highs and have pushed past and holding above the 1.4700 level. SM is likely to create buying pressure to the 1.4800 key level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels: look for possible setups to session lows etc but keep stops tight

GU short levels: 1.4770, 1.4800-1.4820, 1.4930 

Posted at 08.29 am EST