DAILY REVIEW 13 June 2016
  

EU Analysis:

EU: Perspective: Price has tested and broken through the 1.0500 which is simply a monthly low and psychological level with the next pyschological level at 1.0000 and the 0.9900 level being the breakout retest of a reaccumulation structure. December's candle suggests a retracement is in progress and January's candle is an "inside" of the December candle while February's candle also closed back inside the January range. We also note that there are no significant orders/ stops lower until the 1.0000 key level. Bias is still strongly down from a market structure perspective.    

MONTH- The candle is an above average spread (518pips) bear closing at the low on low vol<9months. The candle close suggests more downside.  

WEEK- The candle is a below average spread (170pips) bear closing at the lo on low vol<1week. The candle close suggests more downside.

DAY- The candle is a normal spread (76pips) bear closing near the low on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly:  1.0000  

Background: The 5-10 year inflation expectation was adjusted from 2.5% to 2.3%, even more reason to expect that the FED should hold off any further rate hikes for the time being. Overall USD strength in the wake of the pro-Brexit poll last week is likely to be transient until significant US data show otherwise.

Oanda order book:  Trapped short volumes dominate but volumes are thin.  

Prices pushed lower this morning inducing more shorts into the market and price is now retracing. There is no demand level, we have to wait for a accumulation/consolidation zone to form and determine whether we can take it back long. SM is likely to fade weak shorts to the 1.1300 key level or higher before reversing.

EU long levels:  1.1210, 1.1170, 1.1100-1.1090, 1.1050, 1.1035, 1.1000

EU short levels:  1.1300, 1.1325, 1.1345-55, 1.1386, 1.1397-1.1420, 1.1452, 1.1485-1.1491, 1.1500-1.1510, 1.1520-1.1525, 1.1532, 1.1580, 1.16001.1615, 1.1619-1.1630, 1.1711

GU Analysis:

GU: Perspective: GU has closed below April pivot 1.4564. The June close of 1.5701 becomes important as a supply level to overcome for higher prices. The downward bias is still dominant. 

MONTH- The candle is a below average spread (437pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol<3months. The candle close and volume suggests selling.

WEEK- The candle is a large spread (479pips) bear spinning top closing on high vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.
DAY- The candle is a large spread (292pips) bear closing about 1/3 off the low on low vol>3days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.

Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.3705-1.3500 Supply: Short term: 1.5574, 1.5600, 1.5619 

The Oanda order book: Take notice of newly profitable shorts. Trapped shorts are in play. 

The pro-Brexit poll last Friday sent this pair into a tailspin. Prices closed way below the daily ema200 and continued lower, negating the earlier analysis. SM is likely to rfade weak shorts to the 1.4400 key level or higher before reversing. 

GU long levels: not applicable

GU short levels: 1.4400, 1.4433, 1.4500, 1.4520, 1.4540, 1.4660, 1.4730, 1.4770, 1.4800-1.4820 

Posted at 03.03 am EST