DAILY REVIEW 7 Apr 2014
EU: Weekly- the candle is a below average spread (148pips) bear closing off the low on vol<1week. The candle close and volume suggests a continued slowing down of the selling. The Daily candle is a small spread (58pips) bear closing ½ off the low on average vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests commencement of buying. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3672 (Friday’s low), 1.3654 - 1.3642 (confluence Fib 61.8%), 1.3600 – 1.3590 (key level),  1.3573 – 1.3561  Supply:  short-term: 1.3720 – 1.3730, 1.3756 – 1.3770, 1.3966 The Asian range is 1.3695 – 1.3703 currently. NFP news last Friday was mixed and generally not pro-USD strength. SM used the news to do a 58pips wipeout of longs and shorts and looks like they have started the process of re-accumulation. Prices opened gapped down by about 4pips with the gap already closed. SM is likely to test Friday’s high (1.3730) to induce breakout traders long and then reverse to fade them back down to Friday’s low or lower to around the 1.3650 level before resuming back northward.  
EU long levels:  1.3672, 1.3650 EU short levels: 1.3730, 1.3765, 1.3850, 1.400, 1.4050

GU: Weekly- the candle is a below average spread (134pips) bear long body spinning top closing just off the low on vol<2weeks. The candle close suggests more downside and the volume suggests possible SM markdown. The Daily candle is a small spread (56pips) bear closing about 2/3 off the low on low vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests that buying has resumed. Levels of interest: Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term- 1.6548 (Friday low), 1.6533 (confluence Daily Fib50%), 1.6525 – 1.6515, 1.6500 – 1.6490 The Asian range is 1.6566 – 1.6581 currently. Following the NFP last Friday, SM cleared the deck with a 57pips sweep and looks like re-accumulation has started. SM is likely to induce longs at Friday’s high (1.6605) before fading them to reload long orders inventory at a retest of Friday’s low (1.6548) or lower to 1.6534 or 1.6525 level before reversing to continue the northbound move.  
GU long levels:  1.6548, 1.6534, 1.6525, 1.6495 GU short levels:  1.6605, 1.6659, 1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 2.04 am EST