DAILY REVIEW 10 Apr 2014
EU: The Daily candle is a below-average spread (82pips) bull closing near the high on low vol>2days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3822, 1.3800, 1.3785 (Fib38.2% confluence) , 1.3767 – 1.3760 (Fib 50% confluence) Supply:  short-term: 1.3966 The Asian range is 1.3838 – 1.3870 currently. The FOMC released a bombshell yesterday essentially telling the markets that the earlier projections were “too optimistic” without providing any material data. Resulting from this, the expected interest rate increase would not be anytime soon. The market reacted by selling USD and resulted in USD being the weakest in the past 5 months. Since the early market momentum pushed prices past the 1.3800 handle all the way to 1.3861 yesterday, SM continued the move up today to 1.3870 to induce more longs before reversing to remove them at time of writing. SM may induce more longs at day high or even induce more at the 1.3875 pivot but is likely to continue the selling pressure taking out weak longs back down to around the 1.3812 or lower to the 1.3785 level before reversing to head back north.
EU long levels:  1.3812, 1.3785, 1.3765 EU short levels: 1.3875, 1.400, 1.4050

GU: The Daily candle is a below average spread (76pips) bull closing near the high on low vol<1day with volume divergence. The candle close suggests more upside but the volume divergence suggests selling. Levels of interest: Short-term supply- short term – 1.6823 Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term- 1.6710, 1.6697, 1.6673 (Fib50% confluence), 1.6640 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.6600, 1.6548 (Friday low), 1.6533 (confluence Daily Fib50%), 1.6525 – 1.6515, 1.6500 – 1.6490 The Asian range is 1.6771 – 1.6819 currently. The FOMC move is relatively muted and SM has also induced longs on the breakout from yesterday’s high of 1.6799 to the previous supply level around 1.6820 and have started the fade down but supply at 1.6835 is pretty close so SM may still induce more longs again before reversing all the way. If they induce more longs or get to supply at 1.6835 – 1.6845, SM is likely to reverse and maintain the selling pressure to around the 1.6710 level or lower before resuming the move northward. 
GU long levels:  1.6710, 1.6697, 1.6673, 1.6640, 1.6600 GU short levels:  1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 3.13 am EST