DAILY REVIEW 14 Apr 2014
EU: Weekly- the candle is an above average (209pips) bull closing just off the high on low vol<2weeks. The candle close suggests more upside and the volume suggests no demand. The Daily candle is a small spread (42pips) doji closing on low vol<3day with daily volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests that downside can be expected. Levels of interest: Demand: short term: 1.3822, 1.3800, 1.3785 (Fib38.2% confluence) , 1.3767 – 1.3760 (Fib 50% confluence) Supply:  short-term: 1.3966 The Asian range is 1.3838 – 1.3870 currently. Prices opened gapped down 42pips after the ECB’s Mario Draghi’s speech at the IMF’s spring meeting and is still in a 20pip range. While Draghi threatened QE in the event of further Euro appreciation, he did not specify at what level that such action would be taken. With this background in mind, any close of the gap to around the 1.3890 level or even a test of Friday’s high will likely see breakout long traders being reigned in. SM is likely to attempt to induce shorts at the 1.3835 level and reverse to fade them by closing at Friday’s gap inducing more shorts and continuing the fade to around the 1.3900 key level or higher before reversing down to around the 1.3812 or lower to the 1.3785 level before beginning the re-accumulation phase to head back north.
EU long levels:  1.3835, 1.3812, 1.3785, 1.3765 EU short levels: 1.3900, 1.400, 1.4050

GU: Weekly- the candle is a above average spread (254pips) bull closing 1/3 off the high on low vol<13weeks with weekly volume divergence. The candle close and volume suggests more downside.  The Daily candle is a below average spread (70pips) bear closing just off the low on low vol<3days. The candle close suggests more downside and volume suggests no selling interest. Levels of interest: Short-term supply- short term – 1.6823 Weekly/Daily supply level 1.6835 – 1.6845, 1.6860 – 1.6875, 1.6991 – 1.7015, 1.7025 – 1.7045 Demand:  short-term- 1.6710, 1.6697, 1.6673 (Fib50% confluence), 1.6640 (Fib61.8% confluence), 1.6600, 1.6548 (Friday low), 1.6533 (confluence Daily Fib50%), 1.6525 – 1.6515, 1.6500 – 1.6490 The Asian range is 1.6771 – 1.6819 currently. Prices opened gapped down by about 9pips in tandem with overall European sentiment post-Draghi’s comments but the gap has since closed. SM may is likely to maintain selling pressure to 1.6715 inducing shorts, then reverse to fade them to 1.6750 or even higher to around the 1.6799 level before reversing downward to commence markdown and reload of longs. 
GU long levels:  1.6715, 1.6697, 1.6673, 1.6627, 1.6600, 1.6585 GU short levels:  1.6799, 1.6823, 1.6835, 1.6860, 1.7000, 1.7030

Posted at 2.19 am EST