DAILY REVIEW 19 December 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a normal spread (87pips) bear closing off the low on high vol<2days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2257, 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040 Supply: short-term: 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600 Background: After the FOMC statement, price has made a new low today. The fx order book shows order stacks at 1.2300-10, 1.2235-55, 1.2190-1.2200 SM is likely to keep the selling pressure to test the 1.2247 pivot or lower before reversing to fade the weak shorts. A close below 1.2240 will likely see a push to the 1.2041 pivot.

EU long levels: 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040

EU short levels: 1.2370, 1.2400, 1.2440, 1.2500


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a large spread (128pips) bull closing off the high on high vol<3 days. The candle close and volume suggests more upside. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5761, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905 Background: After the FOMC release, price has not made a lower low. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. Price broke and closed above the 1.5762 pivot yesterday before retracing. Fx order book shows order stacks at 1.5780, 1.5750, 1.5700, 1.5690, 1.5530-40, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5400 The fading of weak shorts is continuing and SM is likely to fade to 1.5690 or higher before reversing to test the 1.5540 pivot.  A break below this will see the 1.5500 and the 1.5426 pivot next in line. 

GU long levels: 1.5540, 1.5500, 1.5426, 1.5400 

GU short levels: 1.5700, 1.5785, 1.5800, 1.5825, 1.5860

Posted at 06.06 am EST

DAILY REVIEW 18 December 2014

EU Analysis:

EU: Daily- The candle is a very large spread (195pips) bear closing just off the low on very high vol<1day. The candle close and volume suggests more downside. Levels of interest: Demand: Daily/Weekly: 1.2257, 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040 Supply: short-term: 1.2500, 1.2530, 1.2600 Background: The fundamentals of the Euro is weak. This, coupled with the FOMC statement yesterday where the new term "patience" regading rate increases plus the dropping of the term "considerable time" resulted in a surge in the greenback and US equities. As always, after a huge move on news, there will be a large number of traders trapped and also an almost equal number in profit. The question now is whether or not this move is the real continuation of the downtrend. The fx order book shows order stacks at 1.2300-10, 1.2235-55, 1.2190-1.2200 SM is likely to fade weak shorts to around 1.2370 or higher before reversing to test the 1.2246 pivot. A close below 1.2240 will likely see a push to the 1.2041 pivot.

EU long levels: 1.2240, 1.2162, 1.2133, 1.2115, 1.2103, 1.2082, 1.2053, 1.2040

EU short levels: 1.2370, 1.2400, 1.2440, 1.2500


GU Analysis:

GU: Day- The candle is a very large spread (212pips) bear closing off the low on ultrahigh vol>43 days. The candle close and volume suggests more downside and also possible buying activity commencement. Demand: Weekly/Daily:  1.5426, 1.5100 Supply: Short term: 1.5761, 1.5825, 1.5840, 1.5880, 1.5905 Background: Gbp's "corrective" upward retracement was brought to an abrupt halt and reversed by the FOMC release. There is no significant demand level until 1.5500 - 1.4426 pivot. Price broke and closed above the 1.5762 pivot yesterday before retracing. Fx order book shows order stacks at 1.5780, 1.5750, 1.5700, 1.5530-40, 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5400 SM is likely to fade the weak shorts to 1.5650 or higher before reversing to test the 1.5540 pivot. BOE Governor Carney speaking later today will likely be the catalyst for the SM move. A break below this will see the 1.5500 and the 1.5426 pivot next in line. Note that the huge volume activity seen without the accompanying outcome may also be possibly the accumulation of longs by the SM and the pivot 1.5526 may well be a reversal level.

GU long levels: 1.5546, 1.5500, 1.5426, 1.5400 

GU short levels: 1.5641, 1.5700, 1.5785, 1.5800, 1.5825, 1.5860

Posted at 03.18 am EST