DAILY REVIEW 11 Sep 2013

EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (46pips) bull hammer closing just off the high on low vol>1day. This candle pattern at supply levels would indicate a possible reversal but in the current context, the close and volume suggests no buying interest. As I write, price has broken yesterday’s high and looks like retracing down. The background context is that price has taken out the entire range of last week plus the weekly candle also had no selling interest. SM is likely to create selling pressure to around 1.3250 or perhaps around yesterday’s low which has confluence with M15 ema200 @ 1.3240 before reversing back up. News will also determine how far the drop goes given the ongoing Syrian crisis.

EU long levels:   1.3250, 1.3233, 1.3211-20, 1.3200  EU short levels:  1.3311, 1.3338, 1.3375, 1.3400, 1.3425, 1.3451

GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (59pips) wide-body small wick bull spinning top closing on low vol<3days with bearish volume divergence. The close suggests more upside but the volume suggest no demand. There are two possibilities now: Price is at a current daily supply level so any move down may be fairly substantial as there has been little retracement. However, price is still within reach of the next supply level 1.5800 – 1.5820 so a further push there cannot be ruled out.  SM will probably fade the weak longs by creating selling pressure before reversing upwards. However, an hourly close below yesterday’s low will see it test 1.5650 or lower.

GU long levels: 1.5700, 1.5680, 1.5665, 1.5640  GU short levels:  1.5731, 1.5750, 1.5780, 1.5800, 1.5820