DAILY REVIEW 18 Sep 2013
EU: The Daily candle is a small spread (55pips) bull wide-body spinning top closing off the high on below average vol<4days which suggests no buying pressure. Background is that the gap from Monday is not closed. Volume had increased significantly and then dropped off yesterday. The close suggests more downside although price is within the supply level and signs of weakness have started surfacing, we have yet to see significant climatic volume on H4 and a retest of the supply highs can reasonably be expected. SM has been accumulating in this tight range for the past two days, probably accumulating for a test of the high’s or to 1.3450 in view of the impending FOMC minutes to be released later today. As I write, the current  Asia high is at 1.3363 which is still below the two previous NY session lows the higher of which is about 1.3384 Although these are possible short term pullback levels for SM to reverse to gather more shorts before reversing upwards, a further larger drop may be possible evolving into a reversal depending on the extent or non-existence of the  expected FOMC tapering. I would expect SM to position prices close to one of the supply levels prior to the FOMC announcement. SM is likely to test Asia low or lower to fade weak longs before reversing to supply levels pre-FOMC.
EU long levels:   1.3337, 1.3325, 1.3300, 1.3265, 1.3255  EU short levels:  1.3384, 1.3400, 1.3425, 1.3451, 1.3498, 1.3508, 1.3525


GU: The Daily candle is a small spread (52pips) bull inverted hammer closing on vol>1days.We note that the gap up is not closed. The daily supply 1.6170 – 1.6180 and also 1.6360 – 1.6380 261.8% Fib Ext @ 1.6184 is well within reach. SM has broken Asia high and maintained buying pressure to fade weak shorts and the first possible reversal level at 1.5935 to reverse start inducing shorts to accumulate before the push back up from 1.5900 or Asia low. SM may also take stops above the 1.6000 key level as it is almost a certain stop-hunt location for the fading of weak longs before a further push up and this can happen with manipulation of the EG cross pair. 
GU long levels: 1.5900, 1.5887, 1.5860, 1.5825  GU short levels:  1.6000, 1.6015, 1.6088, 1.6110, 1.6175