DAILY REVIEW 29 Aug 2013

The review is a bit late today as I was busy.

EU: The Daily candle is a normal spread bear closing 1/3 off the low on near-average vol<1day. Technicals: 50% fib 1.3227 confluence with trendline and 13 Aug 2013 low 1.3232 The SM has started marching to the beat of the war drums with the Syrian crisis as the safe-haven currencies of USD, JPY strengthen. We are likely seeing the full blown reversal with no further retest of the 1.3450 level unless 1.3227 holds. SM is likely to maintain selling pressure to test the 1.3227 before reversing.

EU long levels:   1.3227, 1.3200, 1.3175  EU short levels:  1.3300, 1.3340, 1.33371, 1.3400

GU: The Daily candle is a above average spread (125pips) pin bar bear closing about ¾ off the low on average vol>7days. The candle close and volume suggests SM buying as price tested the recent daily demand level  at 1.5445 – 1.5420 Note that price failed to close above the daily ema200 at 1.5538 This is significant as many traders watch a close above this level as a possible change in trend. The long tail is likely to be SM fading weak shorts instead of a reversal owing to the current sentiment. SM uses both news and sentiment to move price. Having moved downward so far today, a possible area for SM to reverse and create buying pressure to fade weak shorts before reversing back down would be around the 1.5500 – 1.5480 area.

GU long levels: 1.5500, 1.5480, 1.5420 GU short levels: 1.5555, 1.5570, 1.5595, 1.5628