DAILY REVIEW 12 Aug 2013
EU: Weekly candle narrow-spread bull spinning top closing on vol<31weeks, although at weekly supply level, price did not make a new high. The volume and close suggest that there is no demand for price to push higher. Daily candle is a small-spread (58pips) bear closing on vol<53 days and price closed at 1.3340 being the daily 88.6% fib. The volume indicates no selling pressure but the close suggests that price may push lower.  CFTC reports that at the close on 6th August 2013, a net long Euro position was seen for the first time since late June which suggest that some bigger players are now net long.  Broker open positions today reveal a net short position but slightly reduced from last week.  After five straight weeks of rise, a retracement down is in order and the volume suggests so. However, the orders sitting above 1.3400 remain tempting for SM to pass up and the way up is still less congested than down so SM is likely to position prices in anticipation of US news from this Tuesday to Thursday. Market gapped down on the open today as SM removed weak longs from Thursday continuing the bearish volume divergence seen on Friday. SM can be expected to maintain the selling pressure to continue to clear out weak longs before moving back up to test  the 1.3350 (Fri NY low).
EU long levels:   1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3245 EU short levels:  1.3350, 1.3400, 1.3430


GU: Weekly candle is a normal-spread bull closing about ¼ off the high on vol<1week. The daily candle is a below average-spread (62pips) bear closing at the low on low volume <53days bouncing off the 78.6 Fib (1.5549) closing as an inside day to Thursday’s candle. The daily candle close suggests more downside but the volume suggests no selling pressure. Prices gapped down on open to 1.5485 (a possible long level listed last Fri) as SM moved down to flush out weak longs and the selling pressure is likely to continue to the 1.5447 before reversing back up. 
GU long levels:  1.5480, 1.5447  GU short levels: 1.5535, 1.5575, 1.5600, 1.5650, 1.5670